Nature, Published online: 11 November 2026; doi:10.1038/d41586-026-03496-z

Forecasts of the effects that climate change will have on biodiversity typically rely on long-term climate averages while excluding extreme events. Projections that include severe drought predict that a majority of the 993 cactus species assessed will see large losses of suitable climatic area: more than 25% of species could lose at least 80% of it by 2100.