Oil is deflating because the market is pricing the end of a war. President Trump has said the roughly eight-month US-Iran conflict is effectively over militarily, and crude fell to its lowest since August as traders stripped out the fear of lost supply.
The risk premium was the extra cost buyers paid for fear that tankers could not pass the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow channel for roughly a fifth of the world’s oil. As traders bet that the war is ending, that premium is leaking away, although Iran has denied talks and a US naval blockade remains.
Latin American producers feel it twice. Lower crude trims their revenues, and the broader market mood hurt: Petrobras, Ecopetrol and YPF all closed lower on Tuesday, November 10.
What matters today. Oil is falling because a war is ending, not because demand is collapsing, so the damage to producers depends on whether peace holds.
01 The session in one read
Think of the oil price as a fever chart for a war. On Tuesday, November 10, the fever kept easing.
Crude had already tumbled on Monday after Trump declared the Iran war effectively over, and Tuesday added a smaller fall as traders kept betting on peace.
For readers new to this market: the fund we track, USO, holds US crude futures. Its price is a proxy and not the price of a barrel, so we quote only its direction against the commodity itself, and the exact fund price in the key facts.
The best-supported reading is that crude is giving back the gains of the conflict, which fits the sharp fall in the past week and the retreat from the 23 October peak. I put that at medium confidence because the fund’s fall on Tuesday alone was modest, which suggests the bulk of the repricing came on Monday, and a single attack on shipping could reverse it. The variable to watch is whether tankers keep moving freely through the Strait of Hormuz.
Oil — the daily wrap.02 The board
The oil-linked shares fell harder than the fund. Ecopetrol led the losses and YPF followed, while Petrobras barely moved on the day but is in the middle of a long slide.
Petrobras is the telling case: seven straight down sessions, 13.28% lower over five sessions and 28.31% lower over 20. The market is not panicking in one day, it is marking the whole sector down steadily.
Source: RT close, 2026-11-10. Where a commodity has no spot feed, an exchange-traded tracker or leading producer is shown as a labelled proxy.
Latin America — Cross-Market Board
03 Why it moved
Cause one, and the heaviest: peace hopes. Trump’s remark that the war is effectively over pulled the war premium out of crude, even though Iran has denied talks and the US blockade remains. Confidence: medium.
Cause two: supply data gave crude no support. The EIA (the US Energy Information Administration, at eia.gov) reported that commercial crude stocks fell by about 0.9 million barrels in the week to 30 October, a small draw that left no shortage to defend the price. Confidence: low, because those figures predate Tuesday’s trading.
The usual drivers also leaned against oil. The dollar rose, which makes crude dearer for buyers using other currencies, and the 10-year yield rose, which tends to cool demand for commodities.
Not everything pointed down. Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries tighten fuel supply, but crude itself ignored them.
04 The trend behind it
Over 20 sessions the oil fund is 7.60% lower, yet over 60 sessions it is still 8.6% higher, so the autumn rally has been erased only in part. It has fallen two sessions in a row since the 23 October peak.
It remains 113.8% above its 12-month low of 66.17, set on 16 December 2025. The war lifted prices enormously and peace is returning them to earth.
This looks like a continuation of the unwinding that began after the peak, not a new phase. A new phase would need demand to weaken, and nothing in Tuesday’s data says so.
05 What it means for Latin America
Brazil gains and loses. Petrobras earns less per barrel, but its pre-salt fields, the deep offshore reserves under a thick layer of salt, are cheap to run, so it is less exposed than weaker rivals. Its shares are 58.4% above their 7 January low of 11.54.
Argentina’s Vaca Muerta shale basin and YPF are the most price-sensitive, since shale needs steady prices to justify drilling. Colombia’s Ecopetrol, with the budget of a state that depends on oil taxes, is the one the market punished most.
Fuel importers benefit. Mexico’s Pemex is a mixed case: it produces crude but carries heavy debts, so falling prices squeeze its refinancing, while Guyana’s offshore boom and Venezuela’s reopening after Nicolas Maduro’s capture in January have no November price figures to cite.
06 The names to watch
Petrobras is the stock to watch: seven down sessions is a long streak, and its 12-month low of 11.54 is far away. Ecopetrol sits 16.4% below its 15 September high of 18.26.
On history: when the oil fund fell this much in 20 sessions, the median result 20 sessions later was a gain of 2.2%, with 61% of cases higher, but the worst was a 50.1% loss. That is not a forecast, it is a reminder that rebounds are common and disasters are possible.
For Petrobras the odds are worse: its median was a 6.4% decline, and the worst a 21.6% decline.
07 What would end it
The fall ends if the peace deal stumbles. A fresh attack on shipping or Tehran rejecting talks would bring the risk premium back quickly.
On the chart, the nearest supports are the round numbers of US$140 and then US$130 for the oil fund, with 66.17 as the distant 12-month floor. Resistance is the 23 October peak of 169.53, with US$150 as the first hurdle.
The next catalyst is the EIA’s weekly inventory report for the week to 6 November, due on 11 November. The honest answer is that the slide stops when the market has fully priced peace, and no one can say yet where that is.
08 What to watch
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket, where users bet real money, runs a market on how far WTI crude moves in November, with US$2.06 million traded as of 7:41 p.m. ET, 10 November 2026. It prices a touch of US$90 at 63.0%, a touch of US$95 at 35.5%, a dip to US$85 at 88.0%, a dip to US$80 at 57.0% and a dip to US$75 at 25.5%.
These prices are bets, not polls. They show traders still expect large swings in crude while the war premium drains.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did oil fall on Tuesday, November 10?
Hopes that the US-Iran war is ending removed the fear premium, helped by recovering regional flows.
Is the USO price the price of oil?
No. USO is a fund that holds US crude futures, so its price is a proxy for crude, not the price of a barrel.
Who loses from cheaper oil in Latin America?
Producers such as Petrobras, Ecopetrol, YPF and Pemex lose revenue, while fuel importers and consumers gain.
Will oil keep falling?
Not necessarily: earlier falls this size were followed by gains in 61% of cases, but a collapse in the peace talks or a new attack could reverse the move.