For the 2026 Local Government Elections, SABC News once again worked with the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) to forecast election outcomes and unpack voting trends as they emerged.
Millions of South Africans turned to the public broadcaster for results, analysis and projections while they waited for the final outcome.
The collaboration, which spans nearly a decade, combines science, technology and data analytics to make sense of one of the country’s most complex democratic processes.
For the past week, the National Results Operations Centre at the Gallagher Convention Centre in Midrand has been the focal point of South Africa’s election count.
Political parties, election observers, analysts and members of the media gathered there to monitor incoming results and track the country’s shifting political landscape in real time.
But while the counting process unfolded at the Results Operations Centre, the work of forecasting election outcomes began months earlier.
Related Video:
Using historical voting data and sophisticated statistical models, the CSIR helped SABC News project trends and likely outcomes as results started flowing in.
The CSIR’s Professor Pravesh Debba explains, “Some of the main things that we do before the elections in setting up the model is that we look at the voting districts and classify them into being in particular areas. So, we do that sort of demarcation of the voting districts prior to the elections. Furthermore, we use the most recent past election results to then look at the voting districts that are most similar to each other and we create a number of what we call clusters, where we group the voting districts that are most similar to each other into a particular cluster. So, that when the results start coming in, we are able to see how close they are to each of the clusters and use that information to then get how the voting districts that have not been declared as yet, how they would likely end up.”
Beyond forecasting results, the models also provide valuable insights into voter behaviour and political trends.
Analysts say one of the standout features of the 2026 elections was the growing influence of social media on voter perceptions and electoral choices.
Matlala Setlhalogile from the Wits School of Governance explains: “This the funniest thing, for the longest of time, social media support did not necessarily translate into electoral support. but in these very specific elections, we saw there was this enhanced conversation, especially around the kind of political parties to provide support for. And those discussions, especially on the part of the ActionSA, have now translated into actual votes, so maybe that’s something we need to look at in terms of how social conversations actually translate into actual electoral support.”
With coalition politics set to dominate local government after more than a hundred municipalities failed to produce outright majorities, understanding voter sentiment is becoming increasingly important.
For SABC News, the partnership with the CSIR remains an important tool in helping audiences navigate complex election data and better understand the trends shaping South Africa’s evolving political landscape.