Published Thursday, November 12, 11:30 a.m. ET (5:30 p.m. Madrid) · Source: CIS pre-election survey, Polymarket
Spain’s state pollster has handed Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez a head start on the very day the campaign opens, and most private pollsters disagree with it. The Centre for Sociological Research (CIS), the state polling institute led by José Félix Tezanos, gives Sánchez’s Socialist Party (PSOE) 33.3% of the vote against 25.5% for the conservative People’s Party (PP), a 7.8-point lead.
The survey landed hours before the official campaign for the Nov. 29 vote starts at midnight Madrid time, as set out in our Spain Election 2026 guide. It projects 134 to 143 seats for the Socialists, well short of the 176 needed to govern alone in the 350-seat Congress of Deputies.
This story is part of our coverage of the Spain Election 2026. Dates, times and how to follow it are in our guide.
Latest: Spain Poll Shows Right Bloc Near 200 Seats
Spain holds a general election on Nov. 29, and parties need 176 of 350 seats to govern without partners. The CIS is a state institute whose polls critics say tend to favour the Socialists, so analysts compare it with private surveys.
The Numbers Behind the Lead
Vox, the conservative party led by Santiago Abascal, is third with 18.4% and 57 to 65 seats. The PP, led by Alberto Núñez Feijóo, would take 98 to 106 seats.
Even the top of both ranges, 106 and 65 seats, adds up to 171, by our arithmetic. The CIS itself warns that the party ranges should not simply be added together.
Frente Amplio, the left-wing alliance formerly known as Sumar, is fourth with 4.7% and seven to 11 seats. In Catalonia, a joint list of Esquerra Republicana (ERC), the Catalan pro-independence party, and Podemos, a left-wing party, would win 10 to 14 seats.
The Gap Narrowed Since October
In the CIS’s October barometer the Socialists stood at 34% and the PP at 22.2%, an 11.8-point gap. Vox then had 17.1%.
The PP has therefore gained 3.3 points and Vox 1.3, while the Socialists slipped 0.7. The two surveys are not strictly comparable, because the new one is far larger.
File photo, 17 July 2018. Sánchez, left, receives Feijóo, then president of Galicia, at the Moncloa Palace. Photo: Moncloa press office/Fernando Calvo, free use with attribution.How the Poll Was Run
The CIS conducted about 45,000 telephone interviews between Oct. 7 and Oct. 30. Part of the fieldwork came after the Oct. 28 rail accident at Urda, a town in Toledo province, south of Madrid.
The survey has no question that measures the accident’s effect on voting intention. The election was called early after a housing crisis, which the poll also reflects.
Private Polls Say Something Different
The CIS result departs from nearly all private polls, which have generally put the PP and Vox together above 176 seats. Our Spain election poll tracker follows each survey as it appears, and our earlier poll report covers the right-wing lead.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market, traders put a PP and Vox majority at 90.5% at 11:30 a.m. ET, with US$58,495 traded. A separate market gives the PP 83.5% to win the most seats, with US$471,222 traded.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What It Means for US Readers
A split verdict would mean weeks of coalition bargaining in a major euro-zone economy, which matters to holders of Spanish stocks and bonds. The CIS and the markets point in opposite directions, so the first big private polls of the campaign will show which side is right.
What Is Not Known
We do not yet know how the PP, Vox or the government have responded to the poll. We have not reviewed the CIS technical report, and the effect of the Urda accident on voters is unmeasured.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who would win Spain’s election, according to the CIS?
The CIS puts the Socialist Party first with 33.3% and 134 to 143 seats. The PP is second with 25.5% and 98 to 106 seats, and neither bloc is projected to reach 176.
Why does this poll differ from others?
The CIS is a state body and its model differs from private pollsters, which have generally put the PP and Vox above 176 seats. The reasons for the gap are not yet explained, and the CIS says its seat ranges are modelled scenarios, not forecasts.
Sources: Centre for Sociological Research (CIS); Polymarket; Spain’s Congress of Deputies.