This story is part of our coverage of the Ecuador local elections 2026. Dates, times and how to follow it are in our guide.
Latest: Ecuador Lawmakers Pause for Local Election
Ecuador’s governing party, Acción Democrática Nacional (ADN), is ahead in the cities that matter most, but the Quito race is close and the poll behind it comes from a little-known firm. The poll, by the little-known firm AAP-Advertising, was published on 14 November, two weeks before Ecuador’s 29 November local elections.
Voters will choose mayors, provincial governors known as prefects, and local councils across the country. For US readers, the vote tests how far President Daniel Noboa’s movement reaches beyond the national level.
Quito Is the Close One
In Quito, the capital, Harold Burbano of ADN has 26.5%. Pabel Muñoz, the incumbent mayor, listed under the Ecuadorian Socialist Party (PSE), has 23.5%, and Jorge Yunda of the Avanza party has 13.8%.
Blank or null ballots stand at 5.8% and undecided voters at 5.7%. The poll gave no margin of error for this race, so a 3-point gap should not be read as a firm lead.
Guayaquil and Cuenca
In Guayaquil, the port city, Cynthia Viteri of ADN has 43.2%, against 24.7% for Fiorella Ycaza of the PSE, a lead of 18.5 points. Blank or null ballots stand at 4.2% and undecided voters at 7.5%.
In Cuenca, Juan Carlos Vega of ADN has 19.2%, ahead of Juan Cristóbal Lloret of a PSE-led alliance on 16.4% and Marcelo Cabrera of the ID-CREO alliance on 16.1%. The top three are separated by 3.1 points, and no margin of error was given.
Archive photo: voting booths at a polling station in Cuenca, Ecuador.Prefect Races Look Tighter in Pichincha
In Guayas province, Andrés Guschmer of ADN has 36.0% against 24.1% for Sofía Espín of the PSE, with 18.6% undecided. In Pichincha, the province around Quito, Giovanna Ubidia of ADN leads Alexandro Tonello of the PSE by 26% to 24%.
In Azuay, Paolo Carpio of ADN has 25.1% and Consuelo Orellana of a PSE-led alliance 17.7%. The poll reports a margin of error of about 2 points for Guayas and 3 points for Azuay, and none for the other races.
Why to Treat the Poll With Care
AAP-Advertising is little known, fieldwork ran from 2 to 11 November, and the sample size was not stated. An earlier AtlasIntel poll, a social-media survey taken from 26 September to 2 October, had Muñoz on 21.1%, Burbano on 16.6% and Yunda on 11.9%.
That survey tested a different set of candidates, so the two polls cannot be compared directly. Even so, they point the same way: Quito is a two-man race.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market, traders put Muñoz at about 55% to win the Quito mayoralty and Burbano at about 24%, with Yunda at about 11%. About US$10,545 had been traded on the market as of 8:24 a.m. ET on 15 November 2026.
The market favours the incumbent while the poll favours ADN’s challenger, a gap worth watching. These prices are bets, not polls, and the volume is small.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
The Calendar to Election Day
Ecuador votes on Sunday, 29 November, after the National Electoral Council (CNE), the body that runs elections, moved the date on 27 March from 14 February 2027, citing flood risk from El Niño, a Pacific weather pattern that brings heavy rain. Mainland polls open at 7 a.m. and close at 5 p.m. local time, which matches New York time on that date.
The official campaign runs from 12 to 26 November. The CNE is holding 45 mandatory debates in districts with more than 100,000 voters, with Guayaquil on Friday, 20 November, and Quito on Sunday, 22 November.
About 13.8 million people are registered to vote, including roughly 0.5 million abroad. The ballot includes prefects, mayors, councillors and local board members, and winners take office on 14 May 2027.
What It Means for US Readers
A strong ruling-party showing would strengthen President Noboa’s hand at home. A split result in Quito, the capital, would show that his movement still faces limits.
Official results will appear on the CNE website, cne.gob.ec, and we will carry them in our live election hub. For background, see our guide to Ecuador’s local elections 2026.
What Is Not Known
The AAP-Advertising sample size and method are unknown, and we found no prediction-market odds for the other local races. Venues and exact start times for the Quito and Guayaquil debates are unconfirmed.
Frequently Asked Questions
When do Ecuador’s local elections take place?
Voting is on Sunday, 29 November 2026. Mainland polls close at 5 p.m. local time, the same hour as New York.
Who leads the latest poll in Quito?
Harold Burbano of the governing ADN has 26.5% to Pabel Muñoz’s 23.5%. The pollster is little known.
What is being decided?
Voters choose prefects, mayors and local councils. Winners take office on 14 May 2027.
Published Sunday, 15 November 2026, 8:30 a.m. ET (2:30 p.m. Lisbon, 8:30 a.m. Quito) · Source: AAP-Advertising poll, CNE Ecuador, Polymarket