In brief: Paris wants Berlin to align its long-range weapons doctrine with France’s nuclear strategy as Germany expands its arsenal with weapons capable of striking deep inside Russia. French officials warn that miscalculated signals could push Europe across the nuclear threshold.
France is pushing Germany to clarify how it would use long-range missiles in a potential war with Russia, warning that miscalculated strikes could trigger nuclear escalation.
Paris is concerned that Moscow could misinterpret the use of long-range weapons by European allies and mistake conventional strikes for the start of a broader attack, the Financial Times (FT) reported on Wednesday.
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Germany is rapidly expanding its long-range weapons arsenal, including systems capable of striking targets deep inside Russia. French officials want Berlin’s plans for deploying these weapons aligned with France’s nuclear doctrine.
The concerns come as Berlin accelerates its military buildup. Germany plans to invest approximately €12 billion ($14 billion) in a new long-range weapons arsenal aimed at deterring Russia, including low-cost cruise missiles, US-made Tomahawks and advanced systems developed jointly with the UK.
As part of the buildup, Berlin is planning to spend nearly €3.4 billion on US-made Tomahawk cruise missiles and mobile Typhon launchers.
With a reported range of approximately 2,500 kilometers (1,550 miles), the missiles would give Germany a ground-based capability to strike targets deep behind enemy lines.
Germany is also working with the UK on a classified missile development project. The joint Deep Precision Strike program envisages a weapon capable of hitting targets up to 2,000 kilometers (1,243 miles) away, including military logistics hubs and supply lines inside Russia. The system could enter service by 2034.
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“If the Russians misinterpret the signal, we could reach the nuclear threshold without even realizing it,” one French official told the FT.
Paris is also concerned that Moscow could hold France responsible for attacks carried out by its European partners, even when French forces are not directly involved.
One source told the newspaper that France had developed a nuclear “grammar and vocabulary” that Germany lacked, highlighting differences in how the two countries approach nuclear deterrence and escalation.
Berlin, however, appears receptive to the idea of a common framework.
A senior German official said Berlin “could not agree more” on the need for a common doctrine.
“It’s not something that the French are asking for and we are resisting,” the official said.
The discussions had previously stalled amid internal French debates over the future of the country’s nuclear strategy. They are now gaining momentum, the German official added.
Germany’s growing missile capabilities have also revived debate over Berlin’s reluctance to supply Ukraine with long-range weapons.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky renewed Kyiv’s request for German-made Taurus cruise missiles during a Nov. 5 interview with German broadcaster ZDF, arguing that Ukraine wanted to purchase and combat-test the weapons.
Berlin has repeatedly refused to transfer the missiles, citing escalation concerns.
German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius has meanwhile argued that Ukraine can already strike Russian oil refineries and military logistics with domestically produced drones, dismissing the need for Taurus deliveries.
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