In brief: The Democrats’ strong midterm election performance could reshape US policy towards Europe, creating opportunities for stronger support for Ukraine, closer transatlantic cooperation and tighter AI regulation. However, Trump’s continued influence, presidential veto powers and potential political deadlock could complicate these changes, making US foreign policy and international security less predictable.
The Democrats’ resounding success in the US midterm elections could also translate into changes for Europe in areas such as support for Ukraine, trade policy and the regulation of artificial intelligence. The press discusses potential consequences and how the EU should respond.
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Commentator Lluís Bassets (Spain) is delighted:
“Democracy is local, but its effects are also global. The United States has voted overwhelmingly against Trump mainly for domestic reasons. ... Only issues that affect people’s lives, their pockets and their well-being very directly can explain the scale of this electoral tsunami. ... The beginning of the end of Trumpism signalled by voters also demonstrates the strength of American democracy. This is perhaps the most powerful global repercussion, in line with the impact of the transfer of power following elections in Hungary, Brazil, Serbia and Israel. ... This is not a happy day for rampant global far-right ethno-nationalism.”
Europe now has every reason to seek to capitalise on the changes in Washington, Protagon emphasises (Greece) :
“Support for Ukraine, security in the eastern Mediterranean and the protection of energy links offer concrete areas for cooperation with the new Congress. The latter’s influence will depend on how far it is prepared to go and on its ability to forge stable cooperative relations with both parties. In short, the US elections have opened a political window of opportunity. European leaders are now called upon to seize this chance through joint decisions, funding and commitments that endure beyond the next election cycle.”
US First Lady to Host Ukrainian, Russian Officials at White House
Europe must remain on guard in the wake of Trump’s defeat, security expert Marco Vicenzino (Portugal) warns in Expresso:
“The Democratic majority opens up opportunities for Europe to cooperate more closely with Congress. However, it does not dispel the uncertainty over how Trump will balance his commitments to allies, trade policy requirements and his preference for bilateral negotiations. ... Tuesday’s elections mark the start of a final phase in Trump’s presidency in which he is subject to greater constraints. But to declare him to be finished politically would be to underestimate the power he still wields.”
La Stampa (Italy) sees implications for Big Tech:
“There is a theory that began to circulate immediately after the midterm election results were announced. Namely, that the US election was also a vote on artificial intelligence, on data centres, and on the power of the tech giants to shape US industrial policy. The debacle for the Republicans – who once again had received hundreds of millions of dollars in backing from the tech giants – opens up new scenarios for the future of this technology. Fewer mega-structures, more regulations, more controls.”
More regulation at home, more chaos abroad
In IQ, economist Vytenis Šimkus (Lithuania) looks at potential changes in various policy areas:
“The technology sector may face tighter regulation. Until now, AI has been developed largely without restrictions. A Democrat-controlled Congress, however, is likely to seek binding rules. These could slow growth while at the same time favouring established market leaders and restricting competition. US presidents whose leeway in domestic affairs is limited by an unfavourable situation in Congress often turn their attention to the international arena and increasingly govern by executive order. As a result, US foreign policy could become even less predictable over the next two years.”
Veto right will lead to major confrontations
In a Telegram post republished by Echo, human rights activist Anastasia Burakova examines Trump’s right of veto (Russia):
“The system of checks and balances in the US is ingeniously designed. Among other things, the president retains the right of veto. ... Even with a majority in both chambers, the Democrats will by no means always be able to push through their own legislation – to override a presidential veto they need the support of two-thirds of the members of Congress. Over the next two years, I suspect we will witness a serious standoff in which decisions on both sides are blocked, which will affect military aid to Ukraine, US domestic policy and defence spending.”