Tax net: time for enforcement
Source Express Tribune 巴基斯坦论坛快报6h ago
Summary
With relief for documented taxpayers, undeclared incomes must be taxed
Full Text
Pakistan's policymakers are saying many of the right things: affordable housing finance, cheaper credit for SMEs and farmers, export promotion, IT development, digital payments and targeted assistance through BISP. These priorities deserve support. However, subsidies and concessional financing cannot substitute for a sustainable revenue base. Who will finance these ambitions if substantial economic activity continues to escape effective taxation?
Broadening the tax net remains the missing piece. Relief for documented taxpayers must accompany measurable progress in taxing previously undeclared incomes. Otherwise, concessions create revenue gaps eventually recovered from the same salaried employees, compliant businesses and consumers. Pakistan needs a system in which the remaining undocumented carries a credible cost, while compliance offers predictable treatment and protection from harassment.
The Asaan Tax Scheme illustrates this challenge. On November 3, the government acknowledged before a parliamentary committee that participation had disappointed and announced plans for enforcement. Reporting on the proceedings indicated that FBR possesses information on approximately 3.7 million retailers, including identity and utility records for 1.4 million. The challenge is converting available information into verified liabilities and sustained compliance.
The experience follows the disappointing Tajir Dost initiative. Consultations, simplified procedures and concessions have struggled to overcome resistance. Some businesses cite corruption and uncertainty; others fear losing their competitive advantage against undocumented rivals. These concerns require institutional reform, but cannot justify permanent exemption. The state must protect taxpayers from arbitrary treatment while ensuring that deliberate evasion attracts consequences.
Repeated amnesties further weaken compliance. When undeclared wealth periodically enters the system on favourable terms, honest taxpayers receive the wrong message. Similarly, higher withholding taxes on non-filers must not become a permanent substitute for assessing actual income. Paying more on occasional transactions should not purchase indefinite freedom from filing returns, explaining accumulated wealth and meeting continuing obligations.
FBR collected approximately Rs13 trillion in net taxes during FY2025-26. Crucially, the achievement was against a revised target. Record nominal collections deserve recognition, but cannot alone demonstrate successful tax widening. The real test is how much additional revenue comes from previously untaxed incomes rather than existing taxpayers, inflation and transaction-based deductions.
The IMF has reinforced this message. At an SDPI conference, reported on November 6, its Pakistan representative Mahir Binici highlighted untapped agricultural, property and provincial services taxation. He stated: "These reforms can only be durable and deliver dividends if the burden is shared, vulnerable households are protected and the benefits are visible." He also emphasised revenue mobilisation of at least 15% of GDP to support public services.
Without durable revenues, development expenditure remains vulnerable whenever fiscal targets become difficult. Private capital cannot carry every public responsibility. Dams, railways, urban transport, universities, hospitals and climate resilience require reliable funding. Ambitions in artificial intelligence and advanced manufacturing depend on education, research, electricity and digital infrastructure. Fiscal weakness ultimately limits both economic opportunity and national resilience.
Agricultural taxation is a decisive test. The IMF's 2026 review identified agriculture as the largest undertaxed sector and highlighted implementation delays following agricultural income tax reforms. Small farmers facing volatile weather and crop prices deserve protection. Large agricultural incomes should nevertheless face taxation comparable to other incomes. Provinces must publish collection results and disclose who benefits from agricultural subsidies. Political influence cannot remain an unwritten exemption from fiscal responsibility.
Enforcement should begin with substantial, demonstrable discrepancies. Property purchases, vehicle registrations, commercial electricity consumption, imports and business receipts can identify declarations inconsistent with economic activity. Retailers, wholesalers, professionals, private schools, hospitals, restaurants, jewellers and estate agents should face consistent scrutiny where taxable income exists. Selection should follow evidence and published criteria, with time-bound appeals and proportionate penalties. Businesses below applicable thresholds must remain protected.
Documentation must also become easier. Expand electronic invoicing, simplify federal and provincial registration, and make digital merchant payments affordable. Offer consumers incentives for verified receipts. Require verifiable compliance for subsidised business credit and government procurement. Publish quarterly dashboards showing additional collections, active taxpayers and resolved appeals. These measures align with the IMF's October mission emphasis on digital invoicing, third-party information and risk-based audits.
I have advocated withdrawing the Rs5,000 banknote and documenting gold transactions. A phased withdrawal deserves examination alongside banking access and safeguards for legitimate cash users. Currency reform alone cannot establish whether wealth has been taxed. High-value gold and property transactions need verified identities, realistic valuations and traceable settlement. The objective must be a durable audit trail backed by effective enforcement.
Other countries have confronted powerful interests. Saudi Arabia detained princes and business leaders at the Ritz-Carlton during its 2017 crackdown. China has removed senior military officials over alleged corruption. Malaysia imprisoned former prime minister Najib Razak following a corruption conviction. South Korea convicted former president Park Geun-hye and Samsung's Lee Jae-yong in a bribery scandal. Vietnam's anti-corruption campaign has reached senior officials and business leaders.
These are accountability examples, not interchangeable models of tax administration. Pakistan should enforce the principle that influence offers no immunity, while preserving due process. Saudi Arabia's phased electronic invoicing programme provides a practical administrative lesson. Lasting reform requires institutions that investigate fairly, collect consistently and spend transparently. A country capable of confronting formidable security challenges must also establish fiscal fairness. Carrots have their place, but voluntary compliance cannot remain voluntary taxation.
The writer is an independent economic analyst
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