Trump must heed U.S. voters' message
: Time for Trump to transform his leadership
The results of the U.S. midterm elections arrived earlier than expected here in Korea, and with a definitive outcome. The Democrats won control of Congress, seizing both the House and the Senate. The forecast for a "blue wave" changed to a "blue tsunami" in a matter of hours, according to U.S. reports, as voters signaled they wanted change. The Democrats' victory was widely viewed as a repudiation of U.S. President Donald Trump's nearly two years in office.
South Koreans closely watched the race for the Senate, where the decisive powers to check presidential powers lay. Democratic candidates even won Senate races in the traditionally Republican states of Texas, Kansas and North and South Carolina. Media reports showed the electorate voting for change as they worried about the state of democracy and the economy, as rising prices stemming from Trump's war on Iran decreased the quality of life for the average U.S. constituent. An AP poll also found that most voters were concerned about government corruption, signaling a "strong desire for Congress to take a more forceful role in checking the presidency." Democrats will now have the authority to do so.
Here in South Korea, the issues that drove the U.S. electorate to vote for change serve as a refreshing reminder that democratic values still matter. A nation that has long been identified with its political system and values seems like it's back. As The New York Times wrote, "The system has held."
Trump should heed the message his constituents have sent. The American president said he accepted the election results, congratulating the Democrats for "doing a good job" and blaming Republican candidates for inadequate campaigns. However, he also posted an image of a red cap decorated with the word "veto" on social media, hinting that he would exercise his veto powers against the opposition-controlled Congress.
It would be difficult to find another U.S. midterm election that allied nations watched as closely as this one. The second Trump administration has pursued some unprecedented policies in trade and foreign affairs. His aggressive tariffs on both allies and non-allies compelled Korea to pledge $350 billion in investments in the U.S. in exchange for a flat rate tariff of 15 percent. On security and foreign affairs, Trump has expressed his frustration at the scale of U.S. military deployment to South Korea, which he has repeatedly criticized for not participating in the Iran war as he had requested. Trump also reduced joint military drills this summer. He continues to maintain openness toward North Korea and its leader Kim Jong-un, providing a chance for dialogue as Pyongyang refuses to engage with Seoul. South Korea must prepare for the possibility that Trump may bypass Seoul to engage with Pyongyang for his own political gain.
The election outcome is prompting concerns that Trump will expand his existing trade and diplomatic policies, putting allies on edge. While the Lee Jae Myung administration does not expect major changes in relations with the U.S. following the midterm elections, South Korea should still be vigilant in the last two years of Trump's presidency.
Trump's remaining years in office will likely be an uphill battle as Democrats flex their powers of check and balance. The Democrats' cautious approach to artificial intelligence and data centers could weigh on Korea's semiconductor industry and chip rally. Their prudent stance on nuclear nonproliferation may also bode negatively for Seoul's nuclear submarine ambitions. Trump earlier said he approved South Korea's request to build a nuclear-powered submarine, following a summit last year between the two leaders in Gyeongju, North Gyeongsang Province. The transfer of wartime operational control may also run into challenges as Democrats generally uphold the traditional alliance.
U.S. allies, including Korea, will have to prepare for heightened uncertainty from a frustrated president facing new limitations as the opposition party regains control of Congress. Korea should prepare with these factors in mind.
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