Published Sunday, 8 November, 4:30 a.m. Eastern Time (ET) · Source: Office of the President of Israel, public prediction-market data
Traders now bet that Benjamin Netanyahu is likely to lose Israel’s top job within eight months. On Polymarket, a crypto-based trading platform, the price that he is out as prime minister by 30 June 2027 is 68%.
The contract for the end of this year jumped about 26 points in a week to 44.5%, after President Isaac Herzog said on Saturday that Gadi Eisenkot, a former army chief and Netanyahu’s main rival, gets the first try at forming a government. It matters for US readers because Israel’s next government will shape Washington’s talks on Gaza and Iran.
What the Traders Now Expect
Polymarket runs a market called “Netanyahu out by…?” with one price for each deadline. At 4:25 a.m. ET on 8 November the 30 June 2027 contract read 68%, the 31 March 2027 contract 66% and the 31 December 2026 contract 44.5%.
A week earlier the same three contracts stood at about 37%, 24.5% and 18.5%. The 31 December price therefore gained 26 points in seven days and 6 points in the last 24 hours, while the March contract gained about 41 points in the week.
The market has drawn about US$125 million in bets since it opened. In the last 24 hours the three live contracts saw only about US$35,000 of trading, almost all of it on the December one, so a few bets can move the short-dated prices.
Why the Odds Moved
Israel’s president holds a mostly ceremonial office, but he decides who gets the first chance to build a government after an election. On Thursday, 5 November, Herzog’s office said lawmakers holding 67 of the 120 seats had recommended Eisenkot, 46 had recommended Netanyahu, and one seven-member faction named no one.
On Saturday, 7 November, Herzog’s office announced that Eisenkot, who leads the opposition party Yashar, will receive the mandate. It is the formal task of trying to assemble a majority of at least 61 seats in the Knesset, Israel’s parliament.
Eisenkot has 28 days, and Herzog can add up to 14. Herzog has also said the recommendation count does not settle who can govern, because parties on both sides refuse to work with some of the others.
Prediction markets do not explain their moves. The timing fits this news, but it is not proof of what traders were thinking.
Crypto — Live Market Board
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket, “Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?”: Eisenkot 66.8%, Netanyahu 18.6%, Avigdor Lieberman, leader of the Yisrael Beytenu party, 6.6%, Naftali Bennett, a former prime minister, 2.8%. About US$89.8 million has traded on that market overall.
Kalshi, an exchange regulated in the US by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), asks who will succeed Netanyahu: Eisenkot 82% on the last trade, Bennett 3.3%. Only about 790 contracts of the Eisenkot contract traded in 24 hours, with a wide gap between buyers and sellers, so that market is thinly traded.
The “out by” contracts and the “who is next” markets ask different questions, so their numbers should not be added together. These prices are bets, not polls.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Why the Odds Stay Below 50% for 2026
The 31 December price is below even odds because a mandate is only a chance to build a majority, not a government. Netanyahu stays caretaker prime minister until a new cabinet is sworn in.
Traders are splitting the timeline. They put the chance of an exit by mid-2027 at about two in three, but give this year’s deadline less than a coin flip.
What It Means for US Readers
Israel is one of Washington’s closest partners, so a change of prime minister would reach US policy on Gaza, Iran and defence aid. Eisenkot’s party says it will govern only with partners who accept his four principles, including destroying the military and governing power of Hamas, the Palestinian militant group.
Investors in Israeli assets should watch the Sunday ceremony and the first coalition talks. Markets are bets, not votes, and the odds can reverse quickly if Eisenkot cannot reach 61 seats.
What It Means for Latin America and Africa
The direct effect is limited. Israel’s next government will set its stance on Gaza and Iran, and Middle East tension is one of the factors that can move oil prices.
Oil exporters such as Brazil, Colombia and Nigeria, and oil importers across Africa, watch those prices. We found no report of an oil-market reaction to this decision, so this is a channel to watch, not an observed effect.
What Is Not Known
It is not known whether Eisenkot can reach 61 seats, or which parties will join him.
We also could not confirm the exact rules Polymarket uses to settle “out” if a caretaker government stays in place.
Frequently Asked Questions
What do prediction markets say about Netanyahu leaving office?
On Polymarket, a crypto-based platform, traders price 68% that he is out by 30 June 2027 and 44.5% by 31 December 2026. These are bets, not polls or forecasts by The Rio Times.
Why did the odds rise again?
No trader explanation is published. The rise came as President Herzog said he would task Gadi Eisenkot, not Netanyahu, with trying to form a government.
What does the mandate actually do?
It gives Eisenkot the first chance to assemble a majority of 61 of the 120 seats in the Knesset. He has 28 days, which Herzog can extend by up to 14.
Does the mandate mean Netanyahu is out?
No. Netanyahu stays caretaker prime minister until a new government is sworn in, and Eisenkot can still fail. Markets price that risk, which is why the 2026 contract sits below 50%.
Can I trade on these markets?
This article gives no trading advice and links to no betting site. Kalshi is regulated in the US by the CFTC; Polymarket is a separate crypto-based platform.
Sources: Office of the President of Israel; Knesset, Israel’s parliament; Polymarket and Kalshi public market data (read 8 November 2026, 4:25 a.m. ET).