From L-R: CAPPA’s Executive Director, Akinbode Oluwafermi, CAPPA’s Assistant Executive Director, Zikorah Ibeh and CAPPA Associate Director, Olamide Martins
CAPPA argued that progress should not be measured only by emissions targets and investment in renewable energy.
A report by the Corporate Accountability and Public Participation Africa (CAPPA) has raised concerns about the future of workers and communities whose livelihoods depend on Nigeria’s oil and gas industry as the country pursues its energy transition.
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The report, Four Years On: Examining Nigeria’s Just Transition Plan, says workers and affected communities are not adequately protected, pointing to poor coordination among government agencies, uncertain funding and the absence of firm guarantees on retraining, income security and environmental restoration.
It identified poor coordination among government institutions and uncertainty over funding as major obstacles to implementing the plan. It also highlighted the absence of enforceable guarantees on retraining, income security and environmental restoration for affected workers and communities.
CAPPA argued that progress should not be measured only by emissions targets and investment in renewable energy.
“Responsibilities are dispersed across institutions, financing relies heavily on anticipated investment, and workers and affected communities lack sufficiently enforceable guarantees of income security, retraining and environmental repair,” CAPPA Executive Director Akinbode Oluwafermi said in his opening remarks at the report’s launch in Lagos on Tuesday.
The report noted that the transition must bring affordable and reliable electricity and provide sustainable livelihoods for those affected by changes in the energy sector.
The concerns echo calls by the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) and energy transition experts for workers and host communities to have a greater say in the country’s energy policies.
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At a discussion on a just and equitable transition in October, Chukwumerije Okereke, head of the British Research Academy, said climate change was also a workplace issue because workers were directly exposed to pollution and other environmental hazards.
Mr Okereke, a professor, called for training and skills development to prepare affected workers for employment in the emerging low-carbon economy.
He urged the government to provide social protection, including adequate compensation, early retirement benefits and timely payment of pensions to those who lose their jobs.
The NLC’s Head of Climate Change, Eche Asuzu, said a just transition required fair governance arrangements and an equitable distribution of the benefits and costs of energy projects.
He called for more research into the concerns of communities affected by mining and other energy-related projects, saying some had complained of displacement, inadequate compensation and poor responses from companies and government authorities.
Although Nigeria has policies and regulations intended to protect affected communities, Mr Asuzu said poor implementation and monitoring remained major problems. He urged federal, state and local governments to work with companies and host communities to address them.
Nigeria’s climate commitments and funding needs
Nigeria launched its Energy Transition Plan in 2022, setting a target of net-zero emissions by 2060. The plan covers five sectors: power, cooking, transport, industry, and oil and gas.
The government says it is designed to tackle energy poverty, reduce emissions and support economic development. It includes managing expected job losses in the oil sector as global demand for fossil fuels declines, while creating employment in power, cooking and transport.
In September 2025, Nigeria submitted its third Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC 3.0) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, updating its climate commitments.
Under the pledge, the country committed to reducing emissions by 32.2 per cent by 2030, achieving universal electricity access and increasing renewable energy’s share of the power mix to 50 per cent. It also set a target of increasing new electricity connections by nine per cent annually.
The updated contribution includes economy-wide emissions reduction targets of 168.2 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent by 2030 and 184.9 million tonnes by 2035, relative to 2018 levels.
The government estimates that implementing the commitments will cost about $337 billion between 2026 and 2035. Of this amount, $195 billion is earmarked for emissions reduction and about $141.5 billion for climate adaptation. Another $500 million is allocated to climate empowerment activities.
Nigeria expects to raise $67 billion domestically, with the remaining $270 billion — about 80 per cent of the total — expected from international sources through grants, concessional finance and technology support.
PREMIUM TIMES had examined the funding requirements and the difficulties Nigeria faces in securing the money needed to implement its climate commitments.
Climate finance falls short
Nigeria is not alone in facing a climate financing shortfall. Developing countries generally lack the funding needed to prepare for and respond to climate change.
In its 2026 Adaptation Gap Report, the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) estimated that developing countries would need about $305 billion annually by 2035 to adapt to climate change.
International public finance for adaptation stood at between $28.2 billion and $31.7 billion in 2024, an increase of only about $1 billion from the previous year.
UNEP said even tripling international public adaptation finance, as envisaged under an agreement reached at the previous climate conference, would cover only 20 to 29 per cent of developing countries’ estimated needs by 2035.
The report identified institutional barriers to implementing adaptation measures and warned that losses and damage linked to climate change were continuing to rise.
UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen said the world was not adequately prepared for current climate conditions, let alone the consequences of global warming exceeding 1.5 degrees Celsius.
A separate assessment by the Climate Policy Initiative (CPI) provides a picture of Nigeria’s climate finance before its latest commitments were submitted.
In its May 2025 report, Landscape of Climate Finance in Nigeria 2025, CPI estimated that $2.5 billion in public and private finance went towards climate action in 2021 and 2022. That was 32 per cent more than the $1.9 billion recorded in 2019 and 2020.
Despite the increase, CPI put Nigeria’s annual climate finance gap at $27.2 billion.
The $2.5 billion recorded over the two years was less than one per cent of the country’s gross domestic product. CPI also noted that the amount was considerably lower than the $9.3 billion the government spent on fossil fuel subsidies in 2022.
Public institutions provided 70 per cent of the climate finance tracked by the organisation, while private actors accounted for 30 per cent. Multilateral development finance institutions alone supplied 48 per cent of the total.
Corporations accounted for more than three-fifths of private climate finance, with much of their investment going into small-scale solar power projects.
CPI found that projects aimed at reducing emissions attracted more funding than measures to help communities adapt to climate change. Mitigation received $1.2 billion, compared with $740 million for adaptation. The latter covered only six per cent of Nigeria’s estimated adaptation finance needs.
About half of the adaptation funding went to agriculture, forestry, other land use and fisheries. The report found little funding for climate-resilient infrastructure in sectors such as energy, buildings, transport and industry.
Loans, investment and implementation gaps
Concessional loans accounted for 54 per cent of tracked international public climate finance, while non-concessional loans made up another 35 per cent.
The organisation warned that reliance on loans could add to Nigeria’s debt burden and leave the government with less money for public services and development.
It also identified the high cost of capital, a shortage of bankable projects, limited technical capacity, gaps in data and poor access to affordable green technology as barriers to attracting investment.
The organisation recommended more support for project preparation by government institutions and development finance organisations. It also called for costed climate action plans that are ready for investment and better aligned with Nigeria’s economic and social development priorities.
Other recommendations included making the National Climate Change Fund operational, expanding the use of guarantees and green bonds, and investing in the country’s domestic green industry.
CPI said developing local technology and financing could create jobs and reduce Nigeria’s dependence on imported equipment.
Nigeria’s continued reliance on oil and gas revenues presents another difficulty. President Bola Tinubu’s administration has backed increased production for domestic use and export, even as the country commits to reducing emissions.
Nigeria’s electricity deficit adds to the difficulty. PREMIUM TIMES reported that about 86.8 million Nigerians lacked access to electricity in 2023, while unreliable grid supply has left many households and businesses dependent on petrol-powered generators.
Carbon markets and community rights
The second CAPPA report, Nationally Determined Contributions in Africa: A Five-Country Policy Analysis, examined climate policies in Cameroon, Nigeria, South Africa, Togo and Uganda.
It questioned the growing use of carbon markets and offset schemes in national climate plans, arguing that they could allow companies and countries to continue emitting greenhouse gases while claiming to compensate for the pollution through activities such as tree planting and forest conservation.
The report warned that carbon stored in forests and plantations could be lost through fires, land conversion and other disturbances. It argued that such projects should not replace direct cuts in greenhouse gas emissions.
It cited Uganda’s climate plan, which assigns a substantial share of projected emissions reductions to commercial plantations, compared with two measures focused on restoring natural forests.
The report also referred to allegations of forced evictions linked to Uganda’s Kachung forestry carbon-credit project. A report documented villagers’ claims that they were displaced from land used for subsistence farming to make way for a tree plantation linked to carbon-credit trading.
CAPPA argued that climate policies should prioritise actual emissions reductions while protecting the rights and livelihoods of people affected by climate projects.
CAPPA warns against corporate influence
Mr Oluwafermi questioned whether Africa’s climate policies were being shaped by the needs of local communities or corporate interests.
He pointed to international oil companies that continue to invest in fossil fuel projects across the continent while also announcing investments in renewable energy.
Mr Oluwafermi cited TotalEnergies’ renewable energy investments alongside its involvement in the East African Crude Oil Pipeline project involving Uganda and Tanzania, as well as the Tilenga oil project in Uganda.
He also raised concerns about oil exploration in Cameroon and carbon-credit schemes in Nigeria, including the REDD+ project in Cross River State.
He warned that rural communities could lose ancestral lands to climate projects if their rights were not protected.