This story is part of our coverage of the Mexico vs Jamaica. Dates, times and how to follow it are in our guide.

Latest: Mexico Opens Nations League Tie in Jamaica

Mexico and Jamaica are playing two matches against each other, and the combined score (the aggregate) decides who moves on. Jamaica won the first one away from home, so Mexico must now win the second in front of its own fans.

Published Saturday, November 14, 10:58 p.m. ET (9:58 p.m. Monterrey) · Source: Concacaf, Mexican Football Federation, official match data

Mexico spent an hour in Kingston chasing a match that was already slipping away, then almost clawed it back. Jamaica won the first leg 3-2 on Saturday night in the quarterfinal of the Concacaf Nations League, the national-team tournament of North and Central America and the Caribbean, in the Mexico vs Jamaica tie that now swings on Tuesday in Monterrey.

Mexico trailed 3-0 before two late goals cut the gap to one. It was the first official match for coach Rafael Márquez, the former Barcelona defender, as we reported in our preview of the first leg.

Jamaica Strike Early and Late in the Half

The opening goal was a gift. Mexico defender Jesús Gallardo put the ball into his own net in the 27th minute, and Jamaica led 1-0.

Jamaica struck again one minute into the second half. Jamaica’s Renaldo Cephas made it 2-0 in the 46th minute.

File photo: Jamaica goalkeeper André Blake in club colours.

Jamaica’s Richard King then scored from the penalty spot in the 63rd minute to make it 3-0. The video assistant referee (VAR), the official who reviews key calls on video, had spotted a foul by Gallardo on Jamaica’s Kaheim Dixon.

Mexico Answer With Two Goals in 11 Minutes

Gilberto Mora, an 18-year-old Mexico midfielder, pulled one back in the 70th minute with a shot from outside the box. It made the score 3-1.

Eleven minutes later, Mexico’s Julián Quiñones converted a penalty in the 81st minute. The spot kick came after Jamaica’s Ronaldo Webster fouled Mexico substitute Santiago Sandoval inside the area, and it made the score 3-2.

The match ended 3-2, and two away goals keep the tie alive.

Why Tuesday in Monterrey Now Matters So Much

The second leg is on Tuesday, November 17, at 9:30 p.m. ET (8:30 p.m. in Monterrey) at Estadio BBVA. Jamaica leads the tie 3-2 on aggregate, the combined score over both matches, so Mexico trail by one goal.

The winner of the tie goes to the Nations League Finals in March 2027 at SoFi Stadium, the NFL arena in Los Angeles, and to the 2027 Gold Cup, the region’s continental championship. The loser drops into the Gold Cup preliminary round.

File photo: Mexico’s players line up before a 2018 World Cup match in Russia.

What Prediction Markets Say

On Polymarket, a prediction exchange, Mexico trades at 41% to win the whole Nations League, behind the United States at 48%, with US$15,185 traded. On Kalshi, a US exchange regulated by the CFTC (the federal derivatives regulator), the last trade put Mexico at 38%, with 52,259 contracts traded; both readings are from Nov. 14, 10:55 p.m. ET.

These prices are bets, not polls, and neither market covers this tie alone. Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely.

We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.

What It Means for US Readers

For fans in the United States, the second leg starts on a Tuesday evening at 9:30 p.m. ET, which means a late finish on the East Coast. The Finals are in Los Angeles, so the winner of this tie plays on US soil in March.

What Is Not Known

We have not confirmed attendance, the full lineups, or a US English-language broadcaster for Tuesday. No official comment from the Mexican football federation, Concacaf or the Jamaica Football Federation was available when we published.

The tiebreak rules if the teams finish level on aggregate also remain unconfirmed. See our Mexico coverage for updates.

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the score in Kingston?

Jamaica won 3-2 on Saturday, November 14. Mexico had trailed 3-0 before Gilberto Mora and Julián Quiñones scored.

When is the return leg?

Tuesday, November 17, at 9:30 p.m. ET (8:30 p.m. local) at Estadio BBVA in Monterrey. Mexico trail 3-2 on aggregate.

Sources: Concacaf schedule, Mexican Football Federation calendar, official match data feeds, Polymarket and Kalshi market data.