Brazil opens today with its currency, not its stock index, doing the talking. The dollar closed Thursday at 5.64 reais, the highest in at least 12 months, and 15.3% above its 11 May low of 4.89.

Behind that sits a cautious central bank and a nervous political mood after the elections. The Copom, the central bank’s rate-setting committee, held the Selic at 13.75% a year on 4 November, ending five straight cuts.

The Ibovespa, Brazil’s main stock index, is down 18.1% from its 9 October peak and 17.04% lower over 20 sessions. Today’s retail sales and business confidence readings will show whether domestic demand is holding up.

We found no confirmed futures price for the open, so the tone is a judgement: cautious, with Wall Street lower and US Treasury yields high overnight.

What matters today. Watch whether the real holds near 5.64 per dollar while retail sales and the US inflation data decide if Brazilian stocks can steady.

Brazil’s financial morning call.

Today’s Economic Events

01 The setup in one read

Think of today as a stress test for a market that has already taken a beating. The real is at a 12-month low, the stock index sits far below its October high, and the central bank has given investors little to hold on to.

No pre-market futures price from Brazilian outlets was confirmed this morning, so we do not claim one. What we can say is that the overnight cues from the US lean cautious.

Wall Street closed lower on Thursday, the US dollar index edged up and the US 10-year Treasury yield jumped 13 basis points to 5.13%. A basis point is one hundredth of a percentage point, and higher US yields tend to pull money away from emerging markets.

US weekly jobless claims rose to 200,000 in the week to 7 November against 195,000 expected, the US Labor Department’s series shows. US commercial crude stocks rose 4.7 million barrels in the week to 6 November, according to the Energy Information Administration, the US energy statistics agency.

The case for a soft start rests on a weak real, a US 10-year yield at 5.13% and a US dollar index that rose again. The case for a bounce is the stock index’s depth below its peak and an October inflation print that cooled to 0.14% for the month.

Our own history says stretched moves do not always continue, but it is no forecast. The variable to watch is the real against 5.64 per dollar after this morning’s retail data.

02 Where Brazil is set to open

The table is a curated read, not a price board: the live board below it carries the full set of closes. Where we write ‘no confirmed indication’, that is deliberate, because we would rather leave a gap than invent a futures level.

The real is the cleanest signal. A currency at a 12-month high for the dollar often signals that investors want more protection before holding Brazilian assets.

Brazil Morning Call — Live Board

03 On the B3 radar today — retail sales and business confidence lead the data

Times are in Brasília time (BRT), the zone of the B3 exchange. The two retail sales lines are the year-on-year and month-on-month readings for September.

Retail sales matter because they show whether Brazilians are still spending despite borrowing costs near 13.75%. A weak print would feed the view that the central bank has room to cut later.

The earnings dates come from a single calendar snippet that we could not open directly. Check each company’s investor-relations page before acting.

04 Copom and the macro backdrop

The Copom is the central bank’s rate committee, and the Selic is its benchmark rate. On 4 November it held the Selic at 13.75% a year, ending a run of five straight cuts, according to the Central Bank of Brazil’s statement.

Official October inflation, the IPCA, slowed to 0.14% for the month from 0.82% in September, the statistics agency IBGE reported on Thursday. The 12-month rate edged up to 4.63% from 4.58%.

We found no published market consensus for the full October reading, so we do not rate it as a beat or a miss. A slower monthly rate gives the Copom room to stay patient while the annual rate stays above the 4.5% upper limit of the tolerance band around its 3% target.

05 Corporate stories to watch today

No company news from a primary filing was confirmed for this morning, so we list none. Company results are posted on each firm’s investor-relations page.

06 The levels to watch at the open

For the real, the line is 5.64 per dollar, the settled 12-month high. A close above it would open fresh territory, while a retreat toward the round 5.50 area would suggest the dollar rush has paused.

For the Ibovespa, the nearest lows are far below at the 12-month low of 154,770, and the 9 October peak of 209,067 is the ceiling that matters over months. The US 10-year yield above 5% is the outside pressure to track for the rest of the day.

07 What to watch

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Frequently Asked Questions

Where will Brazilian stocks open today?

We found no confirmed futures price, so we do not give a level. The cues from Wall Street and US Treasury yields lean cautious.

What did the Copom do with the Selic?

The Copom held the Selic at 13.75% a year on 4 November, ending five straight cuts, according to the central bank’s statement.

Why is the real under pressure?

The dollar closed at 5.64 reais, a 12-month high, as US yields climbed and Brazil’s post-election politics unsettled investors. Confidence in this explanation is medium.

Which Brazilian data comes out today?

Two retail sales readings at 09:00 BRT and business confidence at 11:00 BRT. US producer prices follow at 10:30 BRT.