The EU budget for 2028-2034 is a proposed seven-year spending plan of almost €2 trillion (about US$2.22 trillion) that member states still cannot agree, and four governments resist new joint borrowing for Ukraine. For readers in the United States, the outcome shapes European defence spending, Ukraine financing and the carbon border levy that touches exporters.
The European Union sets its spending in seven-year frameworks called the multiannual financial framework (MFF), and the next one starts in 2028. This analysis explains the proposal, the holdouts and the stakes for trade partners, drawing on the Europe Intelligence Brief of 11 November 2026.
What the Proposal Contains and How the Talks Got Here
The European Commission, the EU’s executive arm, presented the 2028-2034 budget on 16 July 2025. It asked for almost €2 trillion (about US$2.22 trillion), or 1.26% of EU gross national income (GNI) on average over the period, according to the Commission.
The Council negotiations, where member states bargain, work from the Presidency’s boxes, which are set in constant 2025 prices.
The European Parliament’s research service (EPRS) also puts the proposal at almost €1.8 trillion (about US$2 trillion) in constant 2025 prices. That total includes 0.11% of GNI to repay debt from NextGenerationEU (NGEU), the EU’s earlier joint borrowing programme.
The plan replaces many separate programmes with one National and Regional Partnership Plan per member state. The Commission says farm income support is ring-fenced and poorer regions receive at least as much as today.
The Main Building Blocks
The Commission’s own figures for the other headings are listed below, and all are for 2028-2034 unless marked. Euro amounts carry no dollar conversion because the sources used here cite no exchange rate.
The five proposed revenue sources, in annual averages, are the emissions trading system (about €9.6 billion (about US$10.7 billion)), the carbon border adjustment mechanism or CBAM (about €1.4 billion (about US$1.55 billion)), non-collected e-waste (about €15 billion (about US$16.7 billion)), tobacco excise (about €11.2 billion (about US$12.4 billion)) and a corporate contribution called CORE (about €6.8 billion (about US$7.55 billion)). The Commission page gives these estimates, and the €44 billion (about US$48.8 billion) total is our addition, not an official figure.
How the Council Has Trimmed It
The Cyprus Presidency, which chaired Council talks from January to June 2026, published a first box with figures in June. It proposed €1.73 trillion (about US$1.92 trillion) in 2025 prices, about 2% below the Commission.
Seventeen states calling themselves the “Friends of Cohesion” defend the existing system of regional aid. The Irish Presidency, in office from July to December 2026, then tabled a new box on 10 October.
The EPRS says the Irish box cuts the Commission proposal by 8%, or €141 billion (about US$157 billion), and sets spending at 1.02% of GNI excluding NGEU repayments. The Irish Presidency’s box puts its total at about €1.62 trillion (about US$1.8 trillion), and a joint statement from the 17 leaders of the Friends of Cohesion criticised it.
The EPRS adds that the box spares farm and cohesion money within the first heading and keeps the Commission’s new own resources.
Friedrich Merz in Aachen, May 2026. Photo: Grunpfnul, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons António Costa, European Council President, in Helsinki, September 2025. (File photo)Joint Borrowing and the Holdout Governments
Joint borrowing means the EU itself raises money on markets, with member states standing behind the debt together. In December 2025, EU leaders agreed a €90 billion (about US$99.9 billion) loan for Ukraine for 2026 and 2027 funded this way, according to Euronews.
Hungary, Slovakia and Czechia secured an opt-out from the €90 billion (about US$99.9 billion) loan in exchange for providing the unanimity, according to Euronews.
On 10 November, the Rio Times brief reports, four governments were seen opposing German Chancellor Friedrich Merz. The brief names Slovakia’s Robert Fico, Czechia’s Andrej Babiš, Hungary’s Péter Magyar and a figure called Radev, while Euronews names Hungary, Slovakia, Bulgaria and Czechia as the four holdouts.
The two lists differ, with Euronews naming Bulgaria as the fourth holdout. Babiš said Ukraine funding cannot be a precondition for adopting the budget.
Who Is Who
The holdouts matter because the budget needs unanimity among member states, and Parliament must also consent. A new Ukraine loan could proceed without the objectors, but the seven-year budget cannot.
Stakes for Trade Partners, Investors and Latin America
The heading that touches trade partners most is Global Europe, the instrument for development cooperation, neighbourhood policy and humanitarian aid. The Irish Presidency’s box cuts the Global Europe heading about 17.4%, to €156.9 billion (about US$174 billion) from €190 billion (about US$211 billion), a deeper cut than the Cyprus box’s 3.9%.
The same box puts the Global Europe Instrument at €148.9 billion (about US$165 billion), against €169.5 billion (about US$188 billion) in the Cyprus box and €176.8 billion (about US$196 billion) in the Commission proposal. The Enlargement and Neighbourhood East pillar falls to €32.6 billion (about US$36.2 billion) from €38.1 billion (about US$42.3 billion).
For Latin America and Africa, the honest answer is that the effect is not measured yet. No research available here covers Mercosur, EU-Africa funding lines or the Global Gateway share, so any loss is a risk to watch, not a number.
The own resources link trade to the budget more directly. The Commission proposes CBAM, the EU’s carbon border levy, and the emissions trading system as revenue sources, worth about €1.4 billion (about US$1.55 billion) and €9.6 billion (about US$10.7 billion) a year. Our reading, not a sourced finding, is that this ties the budget to the levy that exporters to the EU face.
For investors and companies, the defence and space window of €131 billion (about US$145 billion) and Horizon Europe’s €175 billion (about US$194 billion) are the lines most open to outside suppliers and research partners. Both sit in the Competitiveness Fund, which the Cyprus box cut mainly, according to the research used here.
Friedrich Merz, leader of Germany's CDU.Three Scenarios
These are scenarios, not forecasts. In the first, leaders keep the Ukraine gap separate from the seven-year budget, a new loan proceeds without the objectors, and a compromise lands between the Irish box and the Commission before the end of 2026.
What would stabilise this path is the fact that the Irish box spares farm and cohesion money, which keeps large blocs of states on board. A deal by year end would let legislation pass in 2027 and money flow from January 2028.
In the second scenario, Merz keeps the link and Fico, Babiš and others hold their vetoes on the whole budget. Talks would then slip into 2027, and the risk is a gap in payments after the current framework ends.
In the third, member states agree among themselves but Parliament withholds consent.
What It Means for You
A US company selling goods into Europe should treat CBAM and the emissions trading system as part of the budget story, because both are proposed as EU revenue. A US firm bidding for European defence, space or research work should watch the Competitiveness Fund lines, which are still being negotiated.
For US investors, the practical risk is delay and not a headline number. Without agreement the new framework cannot start on time, and the Ukraine financing question will keep returning to leaders’ tables through December.
What Is Not Known
The final total and the split between agriculture, cohesion and Global Europe are not known. Nor is it clear whether the new own resources will survive, because none of the sources read here covers their fate.
Finally, no source says whether any holdout will block the unanimous vote. The regional effect on Latin America and Africa is also unmeasured.
What to Watch
Frequently Asked Questions
How big is the EU budget for 2028-2034?
The Commission proposed almost €2 trillion (about US$2.22 trillion), or 1.26% of EU gross national income on average, in July 2025. The Irish Presidency’s box of 10 October 2026 is 8% below the Commission proposal.
What is joint borrowing in the EU budget talks?
It means the EU raises money together and member states stand behind the debt. Leaders agreed a €90 billion (about US$99.9 billion) loan for Ukraine for 2026 and 2027 this way in December 2025.
Which governments oppose Merz’s budget link?
The Rio Times brief names Slovakia’s Robert Fico, Czechia’s Andrej Babiš, Hungary’s Péter Magyar and Radev. Euronews lists Hungary, Slovakia, Bulgaria and Czechia as the four holdouts.
When will the EU agree its 2028-2034 budget?
The target is a political deal by the end of 2026, so legislation can pass in 2027. Leaders meet in Brussels on 26 and 27 November and again at the December European Council.
Can one country block the EU budget?
The budget needs unanimity among member states, while a new Ukraine loan could proceed without the objectors. Parliament must also consent to the budget regulation.
What does the budget mean for Latin America and Africa?
The Irish box cuts the Global Europe heading about 17.4%, to €156.9 billion (about US$174 billion) from €190 billion (about US$211 billion). No regional breakdown is available, so the effect on Latin America and Africa is not yet measured.
Sources: riotimesonline.com, commission.europa.eu, newunionpost.eu, agenceurope.eu, data.consilium.europa.eu, irish-presidency.consilium.europa.eu. Retrieved 11 November 2026.