In brief: As Russia ramps up its use of jet-powered drones against Ukraine, questions remain over whether harsh winter conditions could limit their effectiveness. Valerii Zarubin, CEO of BlueBird Tech, explains how freezing temperatures, icing, and adverse weather affect drone operations – and why Ukraine must strengthen its defenses rather than rely on the cold to slow Russian attacks.
At the beginning of 2026, the main weapon used by the Russians to attack Ukrainian cities was Shahed drones with piston engines, or as people contemptuously call them, “mopeds.”
Ukrainian military personnel and defense companies found effective methods of combating them – in particular, electronic warfare was developed, the number of mobile fire groups was increased, and many different interceptor drones appeared. All of this made it possible to shoot down more than 90% of such unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs.) They quite quickly ceased to be an effective weapon (under these specific conditions).
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However, Russia predictably moved on to the next stage – strikes with jet-powered drones – and increased the number of such attacks every month. The scale of the shelling is clearly demonstrated by the statistics of the Ukrainian Air Force. If in June 2026 Russia used a total of approximately 350 jet-powered drones, then in July it was already approximately 1,500 – in August 2,850, and in September up to 3,500. In other words, the number increased tenfold in three months. On average, Russian terrorists launch up to 188 UAVs per day.
Weather conditions also influenced the intensity of the use of jet-powered drones.
The summer period, with little precipitation and weak winds, created more favorable conditions for fast, high-altitude flights. This gave the Russians the opportunity to use existing models more actively, test their performance under different conditions, identify shortcomings, and improve them. There is a hypothesis that frost may negatively affect jet engines, and therefore such drones may disappear from Ukraine’s airspace. But can the situation really change in winter due to deteriorating weather conditions?
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What frost does to aircraft
There is no doubt that the time of year directly affects the capabilities of using UAVs. Dry and windless weather is ideal for drone operations. Rain, fog, low temperatures, and high humidity already create certain difficulties for both attack drones and reconnaissance aircraft. Moreover, this concerns not only the physical condition of the aircraft itself, but also the capabilities of control and the accuracy of mission execution.
Rain and fog limit visibility, making it more difficult for the operator to observe the target and adjust the flight if the drone is manually controlled. The margin of error can increase significantly. Possible communication disruptions become an additional risk.
A separate problem is the combination of frost and high humidity. Under such conditions, ice can form on the surface of the aircraft. This is not simply additional weight: Icing changes aerodynamic properties and affects lift and maneuverability.
For aviation, this is a well-known problem that is addressed using special anti-icing measures. You have probably seen aircraft being treated with special solutions in winter before departing from an airport.
Jet-powered drones are no exception. Even if their design allows them to operate under more challenging conditions, the weather can affect targeting accuracy, the operation of surveillance systems, and communications. However, I would not call this a critical problem for every aircraft, but such conditions certainly create certain difficulties.
Will Russian jet-powered drones really face problems in the winter?
The arrival of winter frosts does not mean that Russia will stop launching attacks with jet-powered drones. We certainly should not count on such a scenario. Weather conditions can indeed affect flight efficiency, but this does not mean that a certain temperature automatically makes a launch impossible.
It is important to understand that the temperature near the ground and at flight altitude can differ significantly. For example, if the temperature on the ground is -10 °C, it may be considerably lower at an altitude of several kilometers. But frost itself is not the main problem. Much more important is the combination of sub-zero temperatures with humidity, wind, and other atmospheric conditions.
Icing can affect the aerodynamics of an aircraft. Ice accumulates on the wings and moving elements of the control system, changing flight characteristics. At the same time, this does not mean that the drone will necessarily lose its ability to fly or that its engine will choke.
Jet engines also have their own operating characteristics at low temperatures. In particular, frost can affect compressor operation, but modern technologies make it possible to ensure the stable operation of such systems across a wide range of temperatures.
Likewise, it should not be assumed that every drone needs to be equipped with a complex heating system to protect it against icing. Aviation uses various methods of anti-icing and protection against ice accumulation on wings. UAVs also require appropriate pre-flight preparation. This adds to the workload of pre-launch maintenance, but it is not an insurmountable obstacle.
Another factor is the ability to change flight altitude according to weather conditions. The atmosphere is not the same at all altitudes: In some places, conditions for navigation will be better, while in others they will be worse. Therefore, the enemy will change routes and altitudes according to the weather in a specific area.
Thus, individual days with bad weather or blizzards can indeed reduce the effectiveness of jet-powered drone operations or affect the number of launches. But this does not mean that attacks will cease seasonally. If the Russians are unable to use a certain number of drones today, this does not guarantee that they will not be used tomorrow.
Overall, I would not try to predict that Russia will completely abandon jet-powered drones in the winter and return to “older” models with gasoline engines. Most likely, we will see the combined use of different types of UAVs. Older versions of Shaheds with piston engines are not going anywhere. They are significantly cheaper to manufacture, so it is advantageous for the Russians to continue using them. Such aircraft can serve to overwhelm air defenses, distract mobile fire groups, and force us to spend resources on interception.
Russia constantly analyzes which countermeasures Ukraine uses. Accordingly, the routes, number and types of drones, and attack scenarios change. This is a dynamic process in which there is no universal solution. And weather is just one of many factors. Therefore, we should not perceive winter as a guaranteed natural protection against aerial attacks by jet-powered drones. We need to prepare for the most difficult scenarios, not those in which we simply get lucky with the weather.
First and foremost, we need to increase the number and effectiveness of countermeasures, develop our own strike capabilities, and systematically work to disrupt the enemy’s supply chains: from the supply of components to the reconnaissance and destruction of drone assembly, maintenance, and launch sites (so-called “drone ports.”)
Only a comprehensive set of such actions can produce results in the long term. But there is another factor that I consider no less important than technology. It is our internal unity. Russia will continue trying to weaken support for Ukraine and undermine trust within the country. A critical attitude toward the authorities’ decisions is necessary, but it should not turn into the destruction of institutions and mutual conflicts between society, the military, miltech manufacturers, and the state.
We do not have to be perfect to work together. On the contrary, it is precisely the ability to reach agreements, listen to one another, acknowledge mistakes, and correct them together that will determine our resilience. If we preserve this unity and continue developing our own technological capabilities, we will have significantly better chances of staying ahead of the enemy.
Background:: What jet-powered drones does Russia use to attack Ukraine?
Russia is developing several types of jet-powered attack drones simultaneously. These include the Geran-3, Geran-4, Geran-5, and Bandеrol. They differ in design, engines, speed, and purpose.
The Geran-3 is a jet-powered modification of the Shahed-136, which retains the basic design of its predecessor but has been equipped with a Chinese Telefly JT80 turbojet engine. According to the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine (DIU), its speed ranges from 300 to 370 km/h (230 mph), and its estimated range is up to 1,000 km (621 miles).
The Geran-4 features a new airframe with a reinforced structure and improved aerodynamics. The drone is capable of maneuvering at high speeds and withstanding greater G-forces. Its maximum speed reaches 500 km/h (310 mph), its range is up to 770 km (478 miles), and its warhead can weigh up to 90 kg (198 lbs).
The Geran-5 differs significantly from previous versions in its appearance and design. It more closely resembles a cruise missile, has a cruising speed of up to 600 km/h (373 mph), and can cover approximately 950 km (590 miles). Its warhead weighs up to 90 kg (198 lbs).
A separate type of weapon is the S8000 Banderol drone-missile. It has a turbojet engine, reaches speeds of up to 620-650 km/h (385-404 mph), and has a declared range of approximately 500 km (311 miles).
Valerii Zarubin is the CEO of the technology company BlueBird Tech. An expert in military engineering technologies, security solutions, and defense AI innovations. He specializes in unmanned systems, electronic warfare, drone detection, battlefield communications, and the impact of technology on modern warfare.
BlueBird Tech (blue-bird.tech) is a leading Ukrainian technology company specializing in the design and production of electronic warfare (EW) systems