Brazil’s central bank has put its rate-cutting on pause, and the market now has to guess for how long. The Copom, the bank’s rate-setting committee, held the Selic at 13.75% on Wednesday and said nothing about what it will do next.
That silence matters because Brazil already pays one of the highest real interest rates in the world, — the rate left after stripping out expected inflation. High rates squeeze borrowers and weigh on domestic stocks, but they also support the real.
Today’s first test is the factory floor. Industrial production and the services and composite purchasing managers’ surveys will show whether the economy is cooling fast enough to bring the cuts back.
Behind it all sits oil. Crude’s slide has hit Petrobras and PRIO, two of the heaviest names on the board, so B3 opens with a central bank on hold and its biggest earner under pressure.
What matters today. A Copom that gave no guidance turns today’s industrial production and PMI numbers, and the oil price, into the day’s real rate signals for B3.
Brazil’s financial morning call.Today’s Economic Events
01 The setup in one read
Brazil wakes up to a central bank that has stopped mid-stride. After five consecutive cuts from 15%, the Copom held the Selic at 13.75% on Wednesday, and the vote was unanimous.
The statement said the outside world had become more hostile because of prolonged armed conflicts in the Middle East, which affect oil prices. It also said inflation expectations in the central bank’s Focus survey of economists had drifted further from target, at 5.2% for 2026 and 4.8% for 2027, and it urged caution on fiscal uncertainty.
The committee gave no commitment on its next step. It said only that it would keep “adequate restriction” in place so that inflation heads to target.
Yesterday’s rally is one line of context: the Ibovespa, Brazil’s main stock index, ended a losing run on the back of Wall Street’s strong response to the US election result. It has still lost 19.02% over the past 20 sessions and sits 19.9% below its 9 October peak, so the buyers have plenty of ground to recover.
The evidence points two ways: Wall Street’s strong finish after the US midterm elections supports risk appetite, while the Copom’s unanimous pause and higher inflation forecast cap how much investors will pay for Brazilian stocks. Pre-market futures quotes were not available when we wrote this, so the direction is a judgement on tone rather than a reading from the screen.
The variable to watch is industrial production at about 09:00 BRT — a weak figure would revive talk of cuts and help rate-sensitive stocks, while a firm one would back the Copom’s caution.
02 Where Brazil is set to open
Read the table as a map of what matters rather than a forecast. Pre-market indications for the index, the real and futures were not available, so the column says so instead of guessing.
The board below shows the closing levels. The point is where the pressure lies: the real has support from some of the world’s highest real interest rates, while stocks must fight the same rates and a fall in oil.
Live Market IntelligenceBrazil Morning Call — Live BoardInside: market breadth, the sector heatmap, currencies & rates, the Latin America scoreboard and the full instrument board.
Rio Times · Live Market Intelligence
Brazil Morning Call — Live Board
03 On the B3 radar today — industrial production and the Copom hangover
The feed lists the Brazilian releases in Lisbon time, so we have converted them to Brasília time by subtracting three hours. Please check the exact minute against the statistics institute IBGE’s calendar before trading.
The pattern in the forecasts is a cooling economy, with both surveys expected below 50. That is the argument for rate cuts to resume, and the Copom has not ruled it out.
04 Copom and the macro backdrop
The Copom held at 13.75% after cutting from 15% since March, and the statement did not signal a next step. Brazil still has one of the world’s highest real interest rates.
The minutes of the meeting are due on Tuesday 10 November, the next dated chance to learn how the committee weighed cutting against holding. The next rate decision is expected in December.
Abroad, Democratic gains in the US midterms have lifted Wall Street, and local press ties the shift in mood to the election result. Oil’s slide helps inflation but hurts the biggest listed earner, which is why this is a mixed backdrop for Brazil.
Other data landed on Wednesday. In the United States, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) services index slipped to 54.5 from 54.9 against a 54.8 forecast. Its business activity gauge fell to 53.8 from 56.5, new orders to 55.9 from 59.8 and employment rose to 51.4 from 50.1. ADP, the payroll processor, counted 86,000 private jobs in October against 69,000 expected and 90,000 before. The US trade balance (a deficit) narrowed to US$105.0 billion in September against a forecast deficit of US$108 billion (consensus -108, previous -105.6). The weekly crude report also covers the Cushing, Oklahoma, hub, whose latest change was not available to us.
In Brazil, net payrolls in the Caged report, the labour ministry’s formal-jobs count, showed 121.3 thousand net jobs in September against 171 thousand expected (consensus 171) and 165.83 thousand before, the weakest September since 2020. São Paulo’s IPC-Fipe consumer price index rose 0.44% in October from 0.51% in September, against a 0.7% forecast. Both hint at a cooling economy, which supports the argument for rate cuts to resume.
Today, US initial jobless claims are due at 13:30 Lisbon time with 196 thousand expected against 194 thousand before (consensus 196, previous 194), plus continuing claims at 1.71 million (1.701 million before), the four-week average at 196 (196.75 before) and nonfarm productivity at 2.5% (1.4% before). They matter for Brazil because a firm US labour market keeps US yields high and the dollar firm against the real.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, a prediction market where traders bet real money, a hold at the December Copom meeting trades at 74.5%, a quarter-point cut at 15.5% and a quarter-point rise at 5.1%. About US$54,600 has been traded on that market, with the quote read at 11 pm ET on 4 November. For January 2027, a hold trades at 48.5%, a cut at 20.2% and a rise at 15.8%, on about US$11,700 of volume. These prices are bets, not polls.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
05 Corporate stories to watch today
Petrobras and PRIO are the names in play because both move with crude oil, and crude has fallen sharply. They were the heaviest weights on the board, so their direction sets much of B3’s tone.
C&A, the clothing retailer, reported third-quarter adjusted net profit of R$56.5 million (about US$10 million), lower than a year earlier but ahead of estimates. Reported profit was R$170.3 million (about US$31 million), lifted by tax credits. For a consumer company, a beat in a high-rate economy is worth noting.
GPA, owner of the Pão de Açúcar supermarkets, posted a net loss of R$220 million (about US$40 million) from continuing operations; the total loss was R$731 million (about US$134 million). It says it has captured R$365 million (about US$67 million) in cost cuts this year, 88% of its target, so the market will weigh the turnaround against the loss.
Axia, the former Eletrobras, saw its adjusted nine-month profit nearly double. We have no confirmed ex-dividend dates for today.
06 The levels to watch at the open
For the Ibovespa, the 12-month high of 209,067 on 9 October is far overhead, and the index is 9.3% above its 12-month low of 153,294, set on 5 November 2025. The round numbers of 160,000 and 170,000 are the nearer markers.
For the dollar against the real, the 12-month high is 5.59 on 22 December 2025, 2.3% above the latest close. The 12-month low is 4.89, set on 11 May 2026, and 5.50 is the round level to watch.
The dollar has gained 8.82% against the real over 20 sessions. In our own history since 2007, after 26 earlier independent moves at least that large, the dollar was higher 20 sessions later in 12 cases, or 46%; the median was -1.0% and the worst case -11.4%. History is not a forecast, but it says a sharp rise has often faded rather than run on.
For Latin America, a steadier real helps importers and dollar borrowers in Brazil, while weaker oil weighs on oil exporters’ budgets and listed producers across the region. The Mexican peso and Chilean peso both strengthened yesterday, so the move was regional rather than only Brazilian.
07 What to watch
Background: Brazil Power Giant Earns US$204M in Third Quarter.
Background: Soybean Fund Slips 0.7% as Corn Gains 1.22%.
Frequently Asked Questions
What did the Copom decide?
It held the Selic at 13.75% on 4 November in a unanimous vote, ending five straight cuts that began in March from 15%.
When is the next Copom decision?
The next rate decision is expected in December. Prediction markets on Polymarket see a hold as most likely.
What Brazilian data is due today?
Industrial production at about 09:00 BRT and the S&P Global services and composite PMIs at about 10:00 BRT, converted from Lisbon time in our feed.
Which stocks are in focus?
Petrobras and PRIO because of oil’s slide, plus C&A, GPA and Axia after their third-quarter results.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI ·