The United Nations Climate Conference in Antalya, Türkiye, opened against a backdrop of scientific warnings and political absences, but by the end of its first week a clear, if contested, policy direction had begun to take shape. The conference, jointly presided over by Türkiye and Australia, moved through the first full week of negotiations with draft texts emerging from most tracks, a major push on the 35-by-35 electrification pledge and a revived methane initiative, even as some of the world’s largest emitters stayed away from the Leaders’ Summit. Warnings from the UN’s top leadership set the tone early when outgoing Secretary-General António Guterres told the opening that the world had entered “a new age of climate extremes”, with “a supersized El Niño colliding with a planet already superheated by manmade climate change”. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) reinforced the alarm, reporting that the past 12 years had been the hottest on record and warning that the exceptionally strong El Niño could make 2027 another record-breaking year. WMO chief Celeste Saulo said global average temperatures from January to September were already about 1.47°C above pre-industrial levels, giving new meaning to the phrase “off the charts”. Negotiations got off to a relatively smooth start after an early agenda dispute was avoided. By the end of the week, draft texts had emerged from most negotiating tracks, although contentious issues, particularly a new climate finance work programme, remained stalled. A presidency proposal for an overarching “cover decision” faced procedural resistance from Russia and other countries. An initial “reflections” text was released, setting out countries’ priorities and including references to responding to a possible 1.5°C overshoot and welcoming roadmaps on fossil fuels and deforestation. A draft cover decision was expected early in the second week. There was also a renewed push behind the Global Methane Pledge. More than a dozen countries rallied behind the Glasgow-era commitment, with France seeking to integrate methane reduction into the COP31 cover decision. On Thursday of the first week, more than $480 million in new philanthropic funding was announced to accelerate efforts to reduce methane and other non-CO2 greenhouse gases. They were absent The Leaders’ Summit, held on November 11–12, was defined as much by who was absent as by what was said. Guterres told the gathering of around 80 world leaders that it was “make or bake time”, cautioning that leaders “cannot keep expanding fossil-fuel production while claiming to be committed to 1.5C”. Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva said that “science and multilateralism remain under attack” and that “the planet cannot be left at the mercy of hegemonic disputes”. UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham was the only G7 leader to address the summit. French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni skipped the event, as did Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. Climate activists awarded Carney and the absent leaders of wealthy countries, including Germany, France, Japan and Denmark, the satirical “Fossil of the Day” title, saying their empty chairs “send a dismal signal about their commitment to international climate co-operation”. The United States had no official federal delegation, continuing the Trump administration’s retreat from international climate diplomacy. An unofficial US presence of Democratic governors, senators and mayors, however, offered a counterpoint. California Governor Gavin Newsom, Rhode Island Senator Sheldon Whitehouse, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, New Mexico Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham and a group of mayors and House representatives attended to signal that states and cities would continue pushing for decarbonisation. Newsom used the platform to criticise Trump’s climate rollback, saying “China is cleaning our clock” on clean technology and arguing that the US was surrendering influence and supply chains by withdrawing from the international stage. The Democrats’ message was also shaped by the November midterm elections, in which the party won control of both chambers of Congress and made gains in gubernatorial races. Minnesota Governor Tim Walz said the results could create more room for state-level climate action. Beyond the headline pledges, the first week also brought attention to adaptation, early warning systems and resilience, following a year of heatwaves, fires and floods. All that said, the first week closed with familiar scientific warnings growing more urgent, thinner political leadership from major economies than at recent COPs, and some of the negotiations’ most difficult questions unresolved. Science and the sermon In his final address to COP31, António Guterres warned that “you cannot build peace on a burning planet”. The WMO’s latest assessment, released on the opening day of the conference, makes that warning difficult to dismiss as rhetoric. The past 12 years have individually been the warmest on record, with the past four occupying the top four positions. Global average temperatures between January and September 2026 were already about 1.47°C above pre-industrial levels, putting this year on course to become one of the four warmest ever recorded. But rising temperatures are only part of the concern. The WMO says the Earth’s energy imbalance has reached its highest level since monitoring began, with the planet accumulating heat as greenhouse gases trap more energy than the Earth system releases. The oceans absorb around 90 per cent of this excess heat, and 2026 is on course to become the tenth consecutive year of record ocean warmth. Global sea levels have also reached their highest levels since satellite measurements began. Glaciers lost more than 400 gigatonnes of ice in 2025, equivalent to filling five Olympic-sized swimming pools every second throughout the year. Meanwhile, freshwater stored on land has been declining globally since 2014, adding pressure to water supplies in regions already vulnerable to drought and extreme heat. The outlook offers little relief. A very strong El Niño, which has been intensifying since August, is expected to amplify global temperatures and extreme weather well into 2027. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo cautioned that El Niño does not create additional heat but releases heat from an ocean that is already the warmest ever measured. Describing it as a “risk multiplier”, she warned that heatwaves, tropical cyclones and rainstorms are intensifying faster than historical baselines had prepared societies to expect. The human costs are already evident and being felt, not just in some of the poorest parts of the world, but also in the global north. European heatwaves, droughts and wildfires led to more than 30,000 excess deaths, according to preliminary estimates cited in the assessment. An estimated 146.5 million people in India were exposed to extreme heat during an April 2026 heatwave, with temperatures reaching 47°C. In Nepal, flash floods triggered by a Himalayan glacier collapse in August killed at least 1,455 people, while another 5,285 remained missing as of October 4, according to government figures cited by UNICEF. The WMO also warns that El Niño could increase health risks associated with heat-related illness, wildfire smoke, poor air quality, food insecurity and the spread of diseases such as malaria, dengue and cholera. The World Health Organization has, for the first time, classified the anticipated health impacts as a health emergency. Yet better forecasts do not automatically translate into better preparedness. John Kennedy, head of Climate Information at the WMO, says seasonal and annual climate forecasts give governments advance indications of how the probabilities of above-average temperatures or rainfall are changing. Unlike short-range weather forecasts, however, they do not predict individual extreme events. Their value lies in giving governments, humanitarian agencies and other institutions time to prepare. The WMO works with national meteorological services and humanitarian agencies to translate these forecasts into action before disasters happen, Kennedy says. Information is also made available to individual countries so that it can be adapted to their particular circumstances and planning needs. For Pakistan, where devastating floods, prolonged heatwaves and growing water insecurity have repeatedly placed pressure on communities and public infrastructure, the ability to interpret and act on such information is particularly important. Kennedy cautions against drawing country-specific conclusions from global or seasonal assessments. Such information, he says, should come from local services and be tailored to local needs and knowledge. The WMO supports these services by facilitating the production and sharing of standard observations and forecasts. This places national meteorological and hydrological services at the centre of the adaptation and climate finance debate. Countries cannot adequately prepare for risks they lack the infrastructure to monitor, or act on warnings if their forecasting institutions are under-resourced. Investment in weather observation networks, data collection, forecasting technology and the capacity to communicate warnings to communities and decision-makers is therefore an essential part of adaptation. US absence and way back The absence of an official US federal delegation was particularly consequential for a country that remains the largest historical contributor to greenhouse gas emissions. For the second consecutive year, Washington stayed out of the formal international climate negotiations, following President Donald Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and his administration's retreat from federal climate action. The country that once played a central role in negotiating the global climate framework is now leaving others to carry much of the diplomatic effort. The withdrawal has not gone uncontested at home and democratic governors, senators and local representatives have used their presence at COP31 to signal that American climate action has not disappeared, even if federal leadership has. The midterm election results have also given Democrats renewed political leverage, although their ability to reverse the administration’s climate policies while Trump remains in the White House is limited. California State Senator Henry Stern believes the United States can recover its position in international climate diplomacy, but argues that Democrats need to rethink how they make the case for climate action at home. Rather than presenting it as an environmental cause that competes with concerns about the cost of living, national security and energy prices, he sees an opportunity to make clean energy part of the solution to those problems. “I think it’s how you talk about it, and I think it’s what you see it as,” Stern said, arguing that voters may not necessarily identify climate change as a priority but remain concerned about the consequences of extreme weather, including fires, floods and hurricanes. He believes Democrats have been too reluctant to make that connection, particularly when voters are preoccupied with affordability and security. For Stern, who is an environmental lawyer, the argument should be about making communities safer, diversifying energy supplies and reducing dependence on volatile international markets. He also believes Democrats need to move away from treating climate action as the pre