债务困境加剧引发结构性改革的呼声
来源 Express Tribune 巴基斯坦论坛快报6 小时前
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债务负担增长速度快于管理能力,财政发展空间不断缩小
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The UN's Fourth Financing for Development (FfD4) Conference, held in Seville in July 2025, delivered a clear warning that the global financial architecture is struggling to cope with mounting debt distress. That warning got central attention at the IMF and World Bank annual meetings of 2026, which closed in Bangkok last month. Planning Minister Ahsan Iqbal echoed it at the SDPI's 29th Sustainable Development Conference, highlighting that the global financial architecture needs fundamental overhaul and anything lesser will not work.
Debt burdens are rising across regions and income groups faster than the capacity to manage them, steadily shrinking fiscal space for development. According to the Institute of International Finance (IIF), global debt hit a record $348 trillion at the end of 2025. Average per capita debt now stands at over $42,000, nearly three times the world's average income per person of about $14,400 in 2025, according to the World Bank. Rising global interest rates and a dominant dollar are squeezing developing nations, making lower debt loads harder to carry than those of wealthy countries. World Bank data reveals the core disparity. Low-income states generate just 12% of GDP in revenue compared to 26% in rich nations, leaving poorer economies struggling to service their debt perpetually. Shocks such as the recent spike in Middle East oil prices can deepen this strain in low-income, oil-importing countries already trapped in debt.
The IMF's latest debt sustainability list, as of September 2025, shows that nearly half of low-income countries are either already in debt distress or at high risk of it. Since 2020, Zambia, Ghana, Sri Lanka and Ethiopia, among others, have defaulted. According to the World Bank, over 837 million people remain trapped in extreme poverty, many in countries facing acute fiscal strain. The situation demands fundamental overhaul of the global financial architecture. Pakistan, as chair of the IMF-World Bank Boards of Governors for 2027, must take this agenda forward. Its near-default episode in 2023 shows how quickly vulnerabilities can intensify under tightening global conditions. By early 2023, State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) reserves had fallen to around $3 billion, enough to cover less than three weeks of imports. Inflation peaked at 38% in May 2023, according to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, and the SBP's policy rate rose to 22%.
The international response to the rising debt distress has been temporary, ad hoc and fragmented. The G20's Common Framework, meant to provide deeper restructuring, has seen slow implementation, prolonged negotiations and modest outcomes. The creditor base has diversified beyond traditional Paris Club lenders to include private bondholders, non-traditional bilateral creditors and collateralised lending, which complicates coordination and weakens incentives for timely resolution. Six reforms stand out, and the second deserves priority. First, a predictable and rules-based sovereign debt workout mechanism is essential. Legislation in New York and London, whose laws govern nearly all international sovereign bonds, could give it legal force. Second, restructuring frameworks need to become preventive rather than reactive. The political costs of announcing a default are very high, so governments delay it at any cost. To avoid the stigma, they often tighten fiscal policy precisely when counter-cyclical support is needed, deepening contractions and reversing development gains.
Automatic standstill provisions can help remove this stigma. They would allow a temporary suspension of debt service when predefined and transparent triggers are met, such as a threshold of disaster intensity. The World Bank's climate resilient debt clauses allow eligible countries to defer repayments for up to two years after a natural disaster, and at Seville a Debt Pause Clause Alliance of bilateral and multilateral creditors committed to similar clauses. The task now is to extend such clauses to all lenders and bondholders. Had such a mechanism been in place when the 2022 floods caused Pakistan over $30 billion in damage and losses, it would have freed resources at the moment they were needed most.
Third, a well-structured effort is required to bring private lenders to the table. Borrowing costs rise the moment a country signals distress, even if it is only seeking a debt-for-nature swap, which discourages early engagement. Collective action clauses, now standard in most new bonds, are not enough. Comparable treatment of official bilateral and private creditors must be enforced, and laws limiting litigation by holdout creditors would stop a few lenders from blocking a deal. Fourth, multilateral development banks require strengthened capital bases and expanded concessional windows. Counter-cyclical lending instruments should automatically scale up during global downturns. Fifth, major improvements are needed in public debt transparency. Both governments and lenders must publish loan-level data. A comprehensive global debt registry, publicly accessible and regularly updated, would reduce information asymmetry and strengthen accountability.
Finally, it is time to go beyond Debt Sustainability Analyses (DSAs) limited exclusively to financial and economic metrics. The IMF and World Bank are reviewing their framework for low-income countries, with a new version due in 2027. Climate risks currently enter mainly through stress tests. They should be built into baseline projections, and the growth returns of climate and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) investment should count in the assessment. Debtor countries must also do their part. With low-income economies raising just 12% of GDP in revenue, broadening the tax base and improving debt management are essential. Pakistan, exposed to both climate shocks and heavy debt service, should use its 2027 chairmanship to push for pause clauses across its lenders and help lead a coalition of debtor countries. The global financial architecture was designed for a different era. Without decisive and coordinated reform, it will continue to respond too little and too late.
The writer is Deputy Executive Director at Sustainable Development Policy Institute. He writes on macroeconomic policy and economic governance
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