Argentina’s INDEC national statistics bureau reported Thursday that inflation reached 2.2 percent in October, a rise of 0.3 percentage points on the previous month.
October’s figure, the fourth-highest monthly reading of the year, was above the forecasts issued by most analysts and private consultancy firms.
“Fundamentally, the disinflationary trend appears to be continuing, driven by core inflation, despite the relative price adjustments seen in some months. In any case, the momentum does not seem to be breaking down entirely,” said Joaquín Aranguiz, an economist at Fundación Libertad.
Consumer prices have accelerated by 26.3 percent since the turn of the year and by 33.1 percent over the last 12 months, according to the institute.
October’s reading continues the uneven inflationary trend that began in July, alternating between increases and declines. The lowest monthly reading of the year remains August’s 1.7 percent, while March recorded the highest, at 3.4 percent.
Among the 12 categories measured by INDEC, three recorded increases above the overall inflation rate. Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels led the way, rising 4.2 percent, largely driven by higher gas prices. Recreation and culture was up 3.3 percent, while miscellaneous goods and services rose 2.3 percent.
Clothing and footwear prices increased by 2.2 percent, transport by 2.1 percent, while communications and food and non-alcoholic beverages both rose two percent.
Below the overall rate were health (1.8 percent), restaurants and hotels (1.5 percent), household equipment and maintenance (1.4 percent), education (1.3 percent) and alcoholic beverages and tobacco (0.8 percent).
Seasonal prices recorded the sharpest increase, rising 5.5 percent, driven by vegetables, tubers and pulses. Regulated prices rose 2.9 percent, reflecting increases in gas and vehicle fuels, while core inflation stood at 1.5 percent.
“The increases in food and housing, water, electricity and gas alone account for almost half of the month's inflation,” Aranguiz explained.
Private-sector forecasts had estimated October's inflation at between 1.8 and 2.1 percent. Fundación Libertad y Progreso and Equilibra opted for 1.8 percent, while C&T Asesores Económicos and Analytica forecast 1.9 percent. EcoGo came closest, predicting a 2.1 percent increase.
The Central Bank's REM market expectations survey, which compiles private-sector forecasts and expert economists, had also projected inflation of 1.8 percent for October.
Buenos Aires City's consumer price index, which often provides an early indication of the national figure, recorded a slight acceleration to 1.9 percent in October. The increase was driven by higher public utility bills, food and housing costs. The capital's inflation rate reached 26.1 percent so far this year and 32.5 percent year-on-year.
Economy Minister Luis Caputo responded to the figures by highlighting the performance of core inflation, which at 1.5 percent was its lowest reading since July 2025.
“Except for that month, core inflation had not been this low since January 2018. Furthermore, the three-month moving average of core inflation was also at its lowest level since January 2018,” he said.
Caputo attributed part of the overall increase to changes to the so-called “Cold Zone regime,” which provides subsidised gas tariffs in certain regions of the country. He said the changes had had a significant impact on the housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels category.
President Javier Milei came to office in December 2023 on a promise to revive Argentina's ailing economy and tame runaway three-digit annual inflation by shrinking the welfare state, targeting public hospitals, universities and pensioners in particular.
Inflation dropped from an annual rate of 211 percent in 2023 to 31.5 percent last year, though officials have struggled to bring down monthly inflation to a regular reading of below two percent.
Milei's government had forecast an annual inflation rate of 10.1 percent for this year, though it raised the projection to 29 percent last month.
The administration predicts an annual rate for 2027 of 18 percent.
INDEC also published the value of the total basic basket, which includes food and other essential goods and services and is used to determine the poverty line.
In October, a family of two adults and two children in the Greater Buenos Aires area needed a monthly income equivalent of around US$1,000 to avoid being classified as poor.
Poverty affected 32.3 per cent of the population in the first half of 2026, according to the latest figures published in September.