This survey forms part of the Bank’s quantitative market intelligence gathering. It is formulated by Bank of England staff, and enhances policymakers’ understanding of market expectations. The questions involve topics that are widely discussed in the public domain, and never presume any particular policy action. Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members are not involved in the survey’s design.
Survey respondents originate from a broad set of market participant firms, selected by the Bank based on a number of criteria, including: (i) relevant market activity in UK rates or money markets; (ii) expertise in UK rates markets and/or UK monetary policy; (iii) willingness to participate regularly in the survey and in the Bank’s market intelligence activity; and (iv) membership of one of the Bank’s external market committees.Please contact MarketParticipantsSurvey@bankofengland.co.uk for queries or for further information.
Survey results
The survey was open from 21–23 October 2026 with responses being received from 80 market participants. For most questions, median responses across participants, along with the 25th and 75th percentiles, are reported.footnote [1] For questions that ask respondents to weight different factors or assign probabilities to specific outcomes, the mean weightings or probabilities are reported. For questions that ask respondents to select one option from a given set of possibilities, the respondent count against each option is reported.
Question 1: Expectations for Bank Rate
1a) Please provide your most likely (ie modal) expectation for Bank Rate after the following MPC meetings? (a)
1bi) And where do you see the level of Bank Rate at which monetary policy is neither expansionary nor contractionary (often referred to as the neutral, natural or equilibrium rate)? (a)
1bii) How do you see the balance of risks around your neutral rate perception?
1ci) Please indicate the percentage probability that you attach to Bank Rate being at the following levels after the 5 November 2026 meeting. (a)
1cii) Please indicate the percentage probability that you attach to Bank Rate being at the following levels after the 17 December 2026 meeting. (a)
1ciii) Please indicate the percentage probability that you attach to Bank Rate being at the following levels one year ahead (November 2027). (a)
1d) Please weight the following factors in terms of their importance in informing your expectations for the near-term path of Bank Rate. (a)
Energy and related commodity price developments
Realised inflation outcomes (excluding energy)
Domestic activity and labour market conditions
Forward-looking indicators of inflation and price expectations
Question 2: Macroeconomic outlook
2a) Please provide your most likely (ie modal) expectation for the annual rate of CPI inflation – conditioned on your Bank Rate expectations (question 1a) – at each of the following time horizons. (a)
2bi) Please assign percentage probabilities to the following rates of annual CPI inflation three years ahead. (a)
2bii) Please assign percentage probabilities to the following rates of annual CPI inflation on average from 5 years ahead to 10 years ahead (ie analogous to the five-year, five-year forward rate). (a)
2c) Please provide your most likely (ie modal) expectation for the annual rate of UK GDP growth – conditioned on your Bank Rate expectations (question 1a) – at each of the following time horizons. (a)
2di) When forming your expectations for Bank Rate and CPI inflation (question 1a and 2a), which of the options below are most consistent with your assumptions for Brent crude oil and UK natural gas spot prices six months ahead?
2dii) When forming your expectations for Bank Rate and CPI inflation (question 1a and 2a), which of the following most closely reflects your assumptions around second-round effects from the energy shock?
No new second-round effects from the energy shock, owing to weaker worker bargaining and firm pricing power.
Moderate additional second-round effects, consistent with some effect on short-term inflation expectations and hence wages.
Stronger and more persistent additional second-round effects, stemming from a greater effect of the energy shock on long-run inflation expectations and hence wages and prices.
2e) How do you currently perceive the monetary policy stance in the UK?
Question 3: Expectations for gilt supply and yields
3a) What do you expect the DMO’s actual annual gilt issuance to be in the 2026–27 and 2027–28 financial years (£ billions)?
3b) Please provide your most likely (ie modal) expectation for the 10-year gilt yield at the following points in the future. (a)
Question 4: Expectations for exchange rates
4a) Please provide your most likely (ie modal) expectation for the level of GBPUSD one year ahead.
4b) Please provide your most likely (ie modal) expectation for the level of EURGBP one year ahead.
Throughout, the Xth percentile is calculated by ranking the survey responses in ascending order and reporting the response which is ranked in position k where k is (X/100)*(sample size -1) +1. For numeric answers, where k is not an integer (ie this position lies between two responses), the result is interpolated by applying the percentile proportional to the distance between them. Discontinuous answers, such as policy meeting dates, are not interpolated. Instead, the first response which covers at least X% of the sample is reported.
Throughout, the Xth percentile is calculated by ranking the survey responses in ascending order and reporting the response which is ranked in position k where k is (X/100)*(sample size -1) +1. For numeric answers, where k is not an integer (ie this position lies between two responses), the result is interpolated by applying the percentile proportional to the distance between them. Discontinuous answers, such as policy meeting dates, are not interpolated. Instead, the first response which covers at least X% of the sample is reported.