CSN, one of Brazil’s biggest steelmakers, had a brutal Friday, 13 November 2026. Its New York shares moved -18.58% to US$0.6288, the lowest close in at least 12 months and 70.3% below the 2.12 peak of 28 January.
The rest of the sector fell far less. The SLX fund, a basket of global steel producers, lost 1.64%, Gerdau -0.68% and Ternium -1.17%.
The gap points to something specific to CSN rather than to steel itself. The best-supported reading, with high confidence, is a third-quarter net loss and a heavy debt load meeting a bond market where yields have jumped.
What matters today. Steel demand is not collapsing; the market is punishing the most indebted producer, while Mexico’s Ternium benefits from tougher import rules.
01 The session in one read
Think of CSN as the most heavily laden boat in a fleet when the tide goes out. On Friday, 13 November 2026, its New York shares closed at US$0.6288, a move of -18.58%.
Over five sessions the shares are down 26.02% and over 20 sessions down 43.35%. This is a rout, not a wobble.
The sector-wide picture was mild by comparison. Steel stocks drifted lower while the S&P 500, the main US share index, slipped 0.40%.
Our reading is that investors fled a bad quarter and leverage rather than steel. In São Paulo, CSN’s local shares (CSNA3) fell 12.1% to R$3.72 on turnover nearly three times the previous day’s, after the company reported a third-quarter loss and net debt of 4.23 times EBITDA, while the 10-year US yield has risen 31 basis points in five sessions. The variable to watch is whether CSN can show a credible plan to cut its debt.
Steel — the daily wrap.02 The board
The SLX fund, which tracks global steel producers, ended at US$97.28 after a 1.64% move, its second fall in a row. Gerdau, Brazil’s largest private steelmaker, closed at US$4.4, its third straight decline.
Ternium, the Mexican producer, finished at US$49.86. Usiminas, a Brazilian steelmaker and the third name on our watch list, is not on today’s board, so we draw no price conclusion for it.
Source: RT close, 2026-11-13. Where a commodity has no spot feed, an exchange-traded tracker or leading producer is shown as a labelled proxy.
Latin America — Cross-Market Board
03 Why it moved
First and heaviest, a poor quarter and heavy debt meeting higher rates. CSN reported a third-quarter net loss of R$1.25bn (about US$220m at 5.667 reals per dollar), against a profit of R$76m a year earlier. Adjusted EBITDA fell 43.5% to R$1.88bn (about US$330m), and net debt reached R$44.92bn (about US$7.9bn), or 4.23 times EBITDA. With the US 10-year yield at 5.14%, up 31 basis points in five sessions, the most indebted name is the one investors sell first. Confidence: high.
Second, trade protection stays in focus. Brazil renewed its steel import quota system, with a 25% tariff on imports above the quota, through June 2027 and imposed anti-dumping duties on Chinese coated and cold-rolled flat steel. Confidence: medium.
The dollar index rose only 0.23% and oil was almost flat, so neither explains a fall of this size; the company’s own results do.
From the RT economic calendar: US producer prices rose 0.3% in October against 0.4% expected, and the core measure, which strips out food and energy, rose 0.3% as forecast, or 5.0% on the year. The 10-year Treasury yield still rose to 5.14%, so the milder headline reading did not ease the pressure. China, the world’s largest steel producer, had no major calendar release on Friday.
04 The trend behind it
This is a continuation that has turned into a plunge. CSN is 29.3% lower than 60 sessions ago, and the 12-month low is today’s close, so there is no support below on the chart.
The wider fund is calmer: SLX is 14.3% below its 113.57 peak of 2 June and 28.3% above its 75.82 low of 20 November 2025. Gerdau is 16.0% below its 5.24 high of 20 October, after a 20-session loss of 12.35%.
Our own price history offers a sobering base rate. When SLX fell this much, it was higher 20 sessions later in 59 of 113 cases (52%), with a median of +0.9%. For CSN, after earlier falls this large, it was higher in just 2 of 6 cases (33%), with a median of -9.4% and a worst case of -45.5%. History is not a forecast.
05 What it means for Latin America
Brazil bears the pain. A slump in CSN, with its mining and cement interests alongside steel, hurts local shareholders and raises the cost at which the company can borrow, which matters for a firm with R$44.92bn (about US$7.9bn) of net debt.
Mexico is the mirror image. Ternium said third-quarter Mexican shipments rose 18% year on year to a record 2.18 million tonnes as stricter trade defences cut imports, and chief executive Máximo Vedoya credited market-share gains.
06 The names to watch
CSN is the stress test. Its debt ratio is now 4.23 times EBITDA, and the question is whether the sell-off is a one-day purge or the start of a financing worry.
Gerdau, Brazil’s largest private steelmaker, has fallen three sessions running. Ternium is the quality play, with record Mexican shipments, although its Brazilian shipments fell 1% to 984,000 tonnes.
07 What would end it
For CSN, the level is today’s close; a recovery would need yields to stop rising and a clear plan on debt. For SLX, watch 97.28 against the 113.57 June high above and the 75.82 low below.
No dated catalyst is fixed beyond CSN’s next debt moves, and Brazil’s above-quota tariff runs to June 2027. Honest answer: the fall stops when US yields stop rising, not before.
08 What to watch
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket, where users bet real money, lists a market on the Federal Reserve’s December decision, with US$33.0 million traded as of 8:05 p.m. ET, 13 November 2026. It prices a 0.25-point rise at 88.5%, a 0.5-point or larger rise at 7.7%, no change at 2.5%, a 0.25-point cut at 0.4% and a 0.5-point or larger cut at 0.2%.
These prices are bets, not polls. They show traders expect the Fed, the US central bank, to raise interest rates again in December.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did CSN shares fall so much on Friday, 13 November 2026?
Its New York shares moved -18.58%. The best-supported explanation is a third-quarter net loss of R$1.25bn and net debt of 4.23 times EBITDA, at a time of rising US yields.
Is Latin American steel in crisis?
Not uniformly. SLX fell 1.64% and Gerdau -0.68%, while Ternium reported record Mexican shipments.
How do tariffs affect Brazilian steel?
Brazil has a 25% tariff on steel imports above quota, in place through June 2027, and anti-dumping duties on Chinese coated and cold-rolled flat steel.
Is a rebound likely?
In 6 earlier comparable CSN falls, shares were higher 20 sessions later in 2; history is not a forecast.