The president of Morocco’s olive federation forecast in August that this season’s crop would be much smaller after a record year.
The president of Morocco’s olive industry federation, the Fédération interprofessionnelle marocaine de l’olive, said in a forecast reported on 6 August 2026 that the 2026-27 harvest would be about 40% smaller than last season’s. That would leave the crop at roughly 1.2 million tonnes of olives, about 800,000 tonnes less than the year before.
The forecast is therefore three months old and dates from before the autumn picking season. The president said the drop should not empty shelves or lift prices, and we found no ministry confirmation, so treat it as an industry view.
What Happened
The federation president put last season’s crop at a record of about 2 million tonnes. It says that was 111% more than the previous season, when drought had cut the harvest.
For 2026-27 the same forecast is about 1.2 million tonnes, a fall of about 40%. It is an industry estimate made before the harvest, not an official count from the government, and a final crop figure has not been published.
File photo. Olive trees near Marrakech, Morocco. photo. Olive trees in the Menara gardens in Marrakech, Morocco. Photo: Elgaard, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons.Why Prices Are Not Expected to Jump
The federation says stocks from the record harvest will keep supplying the market. On that basis it expects neither shortages nor higher prices this season.
Prices will still depend on how much oil the olives yield at the mill, on olive quality, on harvest costs and on demand. The federation describes its view as a forecast, not a guarantee.
The coming season is a step down from an exceptional year. It is not described as a return to the drought years, when the crop was far smaller.
What It Means for You
Shoppers in the United States who buy olive products from Morocco should not expect an immediate shelf shock, because stocks are meant to cover the gap, according to the federation president. Any change would show up first in wholesale contracts rather than in the price of a bottle.
Importers and restaurants may still see tighter supply later in the year if stocks run lower than hoped. Related reading: Morocco news, Morocco halts tomato exports to Africa and Morocco rules out a fuel profit cap.
What Is Not Known
The federation has not published how large its stocks from the record harvest are. Without that figure, it is hard to judge how long they can cover a smaller crop.
It is also unclear how weather, labour and demand will shape the final harvest. We found no government estimate for 2026-27, no final crop figure and no verified US import figures.
More: Morocco news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
How big was Morocco’s last olive harvest?
The industry federation says the 2025-26 crop was a record of about 2 million tonnes of olives. That was 111% more than the year before, which was hit by drought.
Will Morocco’s smaller olive crop raise prices?
The federation expects no shortage and no price rise, because stocks from the record harvest should keep the market supplied. It calls this a professional forecast, not a guarantee.
Is the 40% olive forecast an official figure?
No, it is an estimate by the federation president from August, not a government count. Final yields will depend on weather, the condition of the trees and demand.
Sources: Fédération interprofessionnelle marocaine de l’olive (Moroccan olive industry federation), 2026-27 harvest forecast by its president, reported on 6 August 2026; the federation’s own document was not available to us.
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