—Pará fires. More than 3,500 heat spots in Pará state at interview time; about 9,000 across the Amazon in October.
—Enforcement. Brazil’s environment agency Ibama notified 3,824 high-risk properties; those not complying face fines and embargoes.
—Meta fine. Italy fined Meta €805 million (about US$890 million) on 14 November, about 0.47% of worldwide turnover.
—Prediction markets. Polymarket traders put a hold of the Selic rate in December at 88%, as of about 1am Eastern Time, 15 November.
—Selic. Selic held at 13.75% on 4 November, ending five straight 0.25-point cuts from 15%.
—Power Index. Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 74.2 points (November 2026 edition).
Brazil’s environment agency says the Pará fires are set deliberately to clear land, though no arrests or charges have been reported.
Why Ibama Says Fires in Pará Are Set on Purpose
Brazil’s environment agency, Ibama, says the fires in Pará are set on purpose, with more than 3,500 heat spots recorded in the state. Its president, Jair Schmitt, said in an interview published at 12:10pm ET on Saturday 14 November that fire is used to clear forest.
Schmitt said almost no fire there is natural, because burning is simpler, cheaper and harder to pin on anyone. He blamed occupiers of public land who want to cement their claims, and owners who burn at peak periods to avoid notice.
The main purpose, he said, is cattle ranching and, to a lesser degree, farming. In the broca method, vegetation is partly cleared and the residue burned, and severe drought can carry flames to standing trees.
Brazil’s environment agency Ibama notified 3,824 properties at high risk of forest fire, and owners who did not comply are being fined and embargoed, meaning barred from using the land. It has about 600 personnel, 85 vehicles and 17 aircraft in Pará, plus more than R$260 million (about US$46 million) for fire work.
Pará declared a 120-day climate emergency on 11 November. Federal civil defence recognised emergencies in 12 Pará cities on 3 November, eight of them for forest fires.
File photo from July 2024: a brigade member of Ibama’s fire-prevention unit, Prevfogo, at a wildfire in Brazil. (Photo: Augusto Dauster/Ibama, CC BY-SA 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons)Why Italy Fined Meta Over Facebook Android Photo Access
Italy’s data protection authority, the Garante, fined Meta €805 million (about US$890 million) on Saturday 14 November over Facebook’s Android app. The sum is about 0.47% of Meta’s worldwide turnover, after a complaint in July 2025 from the CTCU, a consumer centre in Bolzano.
The Garante found the app accessed photos, videos and their metadata on Italian users’ phones without specific consent or adequate information. The feature, which suggests phone pictures as post ideas, was switched on by default.
Access came through one permission covering the whole app, and the prompt spoke only of enabling other features. About 20 million Android users in Italy were affected, and the Garante cited a 2019 measure against Meta as an aggravating factor.
Meta must switch the feature off by default within 60 days, including for users who agreed, then ask for separate consent. If it misses the deadline, the feature must be blocked for users without valid consent.
Meta calls the fine disproportionate and plans to appeal. It argued that Ireland’s data regulator should lead the case, but the Garante noted that the EU ePrivacy rules it applied, which cover confidentiality of devices, have no one-stop-shop mechanism for a single lead regulator.
Whether Budget Cuts Can Lower Brazil’s Interest Rates
Brazil’s central bank held its Selic benchmark rate at 13.75% at about 4:31pm ET on 4 November, ending five straight 0.25-point cuts from 15%. The vote was unanimous, and the Copom rate committee gave no timetable for resuming cuts.
Copom cited more uncertainty, higher inflation expectations and a faster-than-expected economic slowdown, and urged caution. Minutes published on 10 November said expectations are unanchored, so policy must stay tighter for longer, and leave room for a firmer reaction if supply shocks have lasting effects.
The minutes named four supply shocks: Middle East oil prices, El Niño (a Pacific warming pattern), the end of the 6×1 work week (six days on, one off), and a weaker real. They project inflation of 5.6% in 2026, 4.7% in 2027 and 3.5% in the second quarter of 2028, against a 3% target.
The central bank says weak fiscal discipline can raise borrowing costs, and wants fiscal and monetary policy to be harmonious. Doubts over public debt and a weaker reform effort could, the minutes say, raise the neutral rate.
José Sérgio Gabrielli, an economist, former chief executive of the state oil company Petrobras and coordinator of President Lula’s government programme, argues the opposite. He says more spending cuts will not lower rates and will hurt growth.
On Polymarket, a prediction market where users trade real money on outcomes, a hold at the December Copom meeting trades at 88%, a 0.25-point cut at 7% and a 0.25-point rise at 1.2%. About US$77,000 has been traded on that market, as of about 1am Eastern Time on 15 November 2026.
Kalshi, a prediction market regulated in the US by the CFTC (the Commodity Futures Trading Commission), shows a similar picture. These prices are bets, not polls or forecasts by the central bank.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
The central bank headquarters in Brasília, where the Copom committee sets the Selic. File photo. (Photo: Banco Central do Brasil, CC BY 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons)What Links These Stories
El Niño links the stories: Pará’s emergency decrees cite it for drought and fire risk, and the central bank’s minutes list it among the shocks pushing up prices. The government opened R$300 million (about US$53 million) of extraordinary credit for civil defence on 21 October, while Gabrielli argues that further spending cuts will not lower rates.
Schmitt says burning is the cheaper route for those clearing land, while residents of fire-hit areas face emergencies. Meta’s fine is small against its turnover and Italian Android users gain a consent prompt, while Gabrielli says high rates and spending cuts together cost growth.
What It Means for US Readers
The Garante’s fine rests on missing consent, and Meta plans to appeal, so US companies with Android apps in the EU should watch how the appeal fares. The Garante said the case does not cover AI training, which Meta denies, and it reserved the right to examine a 2026 cloud-processing feature separately.
For investors, a Selic at 13.75% with inflation projected at 5.6% in 2026 against a 3% target means no clear date for cheaper Brazilian credit. Companies with Amazon supply chains may face questions as Ibama targets burning linked mainly to cattle ranching.
What to Watch Next
COP31, the UN climate summit in Antalya, closes on Friday 20 November, while Pará’s 120-day climate emergency keeps running.
Meta must report initiatives within 30 days, switch the feature off by default within 60 days and report measures within 90 days, counting roughly from 14 November. Copom has given no timetable for resuming rate cuts, so its next decision will show whether the pause continues.
What Is Not Known
Sources disagree on aircraft in Pará: Schmitt cited 17, while 11 were reported on 3 November. No arrests, named suspects or confirmed official burned-area figure have been reported.
Environment Minister João Paulo Capobianco was more cautious on 22 October, and whether Schmitt’s words mark a shift in federal position is not established. Meta disputes the Garante’s facts while the fine rests on missing consent.
Sources
The Rio Times, Ibama says Pará Amazon fires set deliberately · Piranot, ICMBio reinforces brigade members for fires in Pará · ClimaInfo, Fires and drought lead federal government to recognise emergency in Pará · ANSA, Garante fines Meta €805 million over photo use on Facebook without consent