Punjab and Sindh are facing a projected 22 per cent irrigation-water shortfall during the ongoing Rabi season, raising concerns over the availability of water for wheat and other winter crops as the country's three major reservoirs currently hold a combined 6.167 million acre-feet of usable water. The Indus River System Authority (IRSA) has approved a 22pc water shortage for the Rabi season, running from October 1, 2026, to March 31, 2027, based on anticipated river inflows of 21.268 million acre-feet. The authority has estimated provincial water withdrawals at 29.183 million acre-feet, leaving farmers in the two major agricultural provinces facing constraints during a critical period for winter crop cultivation. The projected shortage could affect wheat, the country's principal Rabi crop, as well as tobacco, barley, mustard, gram, lentils, potatoes, onions and tomatoes. The availability of timely irrigation is particularly important for wheat cultivation, as water shortages during critical stages of crop development can affect plant growth and ultimately reduce yields. According to the latest figures released by the Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA), the combined usable water storage in the Tarbela, Mangla and Chashma reservoirs stands at 6.167 million acre-feet. At Tarbela, the water level stands at 1,488.93 feet, with a storage volume of 2.456 million acre-feet. The inflow of the Indus River at the site is recorded at 25,600 cusecs, while the outflow stands at 45,000 cusecs. At Mangla, the water level is 1,186.90 feet, with a storage volume of 3.462 million acre-feet. The Jhelum River's inflow stands at 3,800 cusecs, against an outflow of 33,000 cusecs. The Chashma Reservoir has a water level of 647.80 feet, with 249,000 acre-feet of water in storage. At Chashma Barrage, the Indus River's inflow is recorded at 113,200 cusecs, while the outflow stands at 54,000 cusecs. At Head Marala, the Chenab River's inflow is recorded at 7,400 cusecs, against an outflow of 2,000 cusecs. At Nowshera, the Kabul River's inflow and outflow are both recorded at 8,200 cusecs. The WAPDA spokesperson clarified that the inflow and outflow figures for the Indus at Tarbela and Chashma, the Kabul at Nowshera and the Jhelum at Mangla represent average flows over a 24-hour period. The figures for Head Marala and other monitoring points, meanwhile, are based on readings taken at 6am on the day of the report. The projected water shortage has raised concerns about the country's agricultural outlook, particularly as wheat sowing progresses across Punjab and Sindh. Any constraints on irrigation supplies could increase farmers' dependence on groundwater, push up pumping costs and affect crop yields, particularly in areas heavily reliant on canal irrigation. According to the Food Security Outlook issued by FEWS NET for October 2026 to May 2027, the national Rabi wheat harvest is expected to remain around average despite expectations of average to above-average winter rainfall. Persistent irrigation shortages, below-average groundwater availability and high agricultural input and fuel costs are expected to constrain production, particularly in Punjab and Sindh.\",Our Correspondent,National Incremental tariff raised to Rs25.30/unit,NEPRA chairman uses casting vote to break 2-2 deadlock as two members question revised rate,ISLAMABAD