Wall Street slipped in the latest session. The S&P 500 closed at 7,521 (-0.38%), the Dow at 52,232 (-0.30%) and the Nasdaq Composite at 25,066 (-0.74%).
The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.983% (+2.45%), a hair below 5%. The dollar index climbed to 102.2 (+0.6%), and gold fell 2.41% to $4,039 an ounce.
Gold pays no interest, so a higher yield and a firmer dollar hit it hardest. The VIX eased to 19.46 (-2.31%), which reads as repricing rather than panic.
US consumer prices rose 0.4% in October after seasonal adjustment, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics said, but it could not publish a 12-month rate because of a gap in 2025 data. The CPI s.a. index was forecast at 337 against 336.3 before, while the core inflation rate and the Cleveland CPI readings are not yet in our calendar feed.
Energy supply is tightening quietly. The EIA reported commercial crude stocks at 409.8 million barrels for the week to 30 October, down 0.9 million, and distillates at 99.3 million, down 3.6 million (eia.gov).
02 The Fed speaks six times on Thursday
Hammack, Barr, Goolsbee, Daly, Schmid and Williams all speak on Thursday. With the 10-year near 5%, investors will listen for any sign that officials accept tighter financial conditions.
The Treasury also sells 30-year bonds, and the previous auction cleared at 5.618%. A weak sale would push long yields higher and add to the pressure on emerging markets.
The budget balance is expected at a deficit of 298, against 27 the previous month. That is a reminder of how much debt Washington still has to place.
Housing already feels the strain. The 30-year mortgage rate stood at 7.18% in the prior reading, and existing home sales are forecast at 3.98 million, against 3.99 million.
03 Brazil: a Selic on hold, and a dollar that will not help
On 4 November Copom held the Selic at 13.75%, ending five straight quarter-point cuts. The vote was unanimous, and the bank urged “serenity and caution” while citing a worsening external environment.
A yield near 5% in Washington and a stronger dollar are exactly that pressure. They make it harder for Brazil to cut without weakening the real.
Inflation leaves little room anyway. IPCA stood at 4.58% in the twelve months to September, above the 4.5% ceiling of the tolerance band, and the Focus survey sees 5.2% for 2026.
Thursday’s October IPCA is forecast at 0.26% for the month and 4.74% over twelve months. Copom meets again on 8 and 9 December, and a hot print would make a hold the base case.
China offers a counterweight for commodity exporters. October imports rose 41.6% from a year earlier, against a 32% consensus, while exports grew 35.2%.
Strong buying from Asia helps Brazil, though the narrower trade surplus of US$105.28 billion (712.78 billion yuan, against 859 billion expected) shows how much of it is inbound.
What Prediction Markets Say
Polymarket’s market on the December Fed decision, with about US$24.9 million traded, prices a 25-basis-point increase at 85.5%, up from 79.5% on 9 November, a move of 50 basis points or more at 11.1% and no change at 3.6%. Prices are bets, not polls; stand 11:14 pm ET on 10 November 2026.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What to watch today and this week
Frequently Asked Questions
Why does gold fall when Treasury yields rise?
Gold pays no interest, so a higher yield makes holding it costlier. A firmer dollar adds to the pressure, as it makes gold dearer for foreign buyers.
Why do US yields matter for Brazil?
Higher Treasury yields draw money away from emerging markets and tend to weaken the real. That limits how far the central bank can cut the Selic.
What is the Selic rate now?
Copom held it at 13.75% on 4 November, ending five consecutive quarter-point cuts. The vote was unanimous.
Is Brazilian inflation under control?
Not yet. IPCA was 4.58% in the twelve months to September, above the 4.5% ceiling, and Thursday’s October reading is forecast at 4.74%.
When is the next Copom meeting?
Copom meets next on 9 December 2026. Policy is expected to stay restrictive, according to the bank’s own statement.