South Korea's nuclear submarine plan faces new hurdles
Seoul's push for nuclear-powered submarines faces congressional resistance and eroding trust with Washington.

The Defense Acquisition Program Administration approved a basic strategy for the Jangbogo-N project to acquire nuclear-powered submarines on Friday. The military plans to begin designing the vessels next year with an initial budget of 96.6 billion won ($68 million). Deployment is expected in the late 2030s or later, with military observers anticipating the construction of three 8,000-ton submarines.

Whether these ambitious plans can proceed on schedule remains uncertain. Relations between South Korea and the United States have encountered turbulence over disagreements on wartime operational control and other security issues, while follow-up negotiations on nuclear submarine construction have made little progress.

Following the U.S. midterm elections, the Blue House sought to reassure the public about their potential impact on negotiations over operational control transfer and nuclear submarines. It said the security agreement reached last year reflected mutual trust and would be honored as a commitment between the two countries.

Yet confidence between the allies has weakened.

Uncertainty has grown further after Democrats, traditionally more cautious about nuclear proliferation, secured majorities in Congress. Transferring nuclear fuel abroad for military purposes would require either revising the existing South Korea-U.S. nuclear cooperation agreement or concluding a separate accord. Securing congressional approval could prove difficult.

So far, Australia remains the only country to which Washington has agreed to transfer nuclear-powered submarine technology under the Aukus security partnership with Britain, established partly to counter China's growing influence.

In January, four Democratic senators sent President Donald Trump a letter warning that providing South Korea with potential nuclear capabilities could undermine Washington's longstanding nonproliferation policy.

Meanwhile, North Korea is advancing its own naval ambitions. At the commissioning ceremony for the destroyer Kang Kon in September, leader Kim Jong-un pledged to show progress on major plans to strengthen the country's naval forces within eight months, or by next May.

Experts believe Pyongyang may unveil a nuclear-powered submarine, particularly after displaying the hull of an 8,700-ton submarine last December.

For South Korea, acquiring nuclear-powered submarines could significantly strengthen its ability to counter North Korea's nuclear and missile threats alongside the existing U.S. extended deterrence commitment.

The government must therefore accelerate follow-up negotiations with the Trump administration to implement last year's security agreement. Equally important, it must engage Congress directly and demonstrate that South Korean nuclear-powered submarines would also serve American security interests.

That argument will carry little weight, however, unless Seoul first addresses the underlying deterioration in bilateral confidence. Restoring trust in the South Korea-U.S. alliance must take precedence over ambitious procurement schedules and diplomatic assurances.
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